UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Conor McGregor (10-3) taking on Diego Brandao (6-3). McGregor is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

McGregor is rated at 1573 — 442 points above Brandao's 1131. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is McGregor's striker game against Brandao's wrestler approach. McGregor brings a versatile approach, while Brandao looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGregor throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. McGregor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. McGregor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Conor McGregor over Diego Brandao.** We're leaning McGregor here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Gunnar Nelson (10-5) taking on Zak Cummings (9-4). Cummings will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Cummings carries a modest Elo edge (1357 to 1310), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Nelson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cummings is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nelson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nelson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummings is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gunnar Nelson over Zak Cummings.** The model gives Nelson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Ian McCall (2-2-1) taking on Brad Pickett (5-8). Pickett will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

McCall is rated at 1042 — 208 points above Pickett's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is McCall's striker game against Pickett's all-rounder approach. McCall brings a versatile approach, while Pickett is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCall throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Pickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Pickett over Ian McCall.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pickett at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Norman Parke (5-2-1) taking on Naoyuki Kotani (0-4). Parke is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Parke is rated at 1101 — 417 points above Kotani's 684. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parke throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Parke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Parke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Norman Parke over Naoyuki Kotani.** We're leaning Parke here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ilir Latifi (9-6) taking on Chris Dempsey (1-2).

Latifi is rated at 1195 — 425 points above Dempsey's 770. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Latifi throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Latifi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Dempsey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Dempsey over Ilir Latifi.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dempsey at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Neil Seery (3-3) taking on Phil Harris (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Seery at 961 versus Harris at 840. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Seery throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Phil Harris over Neil Seery.** The model gives Harris a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Cathal Pendred (4-1) taking on Mike King (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pendred at 1015 versus King at 890. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. King throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. King is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. King has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cathal Pendred over Mike King.** The model gives Pendred a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Trevor Smith (5-6) taking on Tor Troeng (1-2).

Smith carries a modest Elo edge (934 to 862), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Trevor Smith over Tor Troeng.** We're leaning Smith here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Nikita Krylov (11-9) taking on Cody Donovan (1-2). Krylov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Krylov is rated at 1400 — 664 points above Donovan's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Donovan throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Donovan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Donovan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Cody Donovan.** We're leaning Krylov here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Paddy Holohan (3-1) taking on Josh Sampo (1-2). Holohan is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Holohan is rated at 1041 — 209 points above Sampo's 832. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sampo throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Sampo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Holohan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paddy Holohan over Josh Sampo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Holohan at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.