The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on BJ Penn (12-12-2). Penn is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Edgar is rated at 1185 — 247 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Edgar over BJ Penn. We're leaning Edgar here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Corey Anderson (10-4) taking on Matt Van Buren (0-1).

Anderson is rated at 1459 — 723 points above Buren's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Anderson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buren throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Buren is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Buren has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Van Buren over Corey Anderson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Buren at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Eddie Gordon (1-2) taking on Dhiego Lima (4-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lima at 943 versus Gordon at 832. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dhiego Lima over Eddie Gordon. The model gives Lima a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Guto Inocente (0-1).

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 511 points above Inocente's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lewis throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Inocente has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Guto Inocente. The model is firm on this one: Lewis at 84%.

The Flyweight matchup features Dustin Ortiz (8-5) taking on Justin Scoggins (4-4).

Ortiz is rated at 1329 — 467 points above Scoggins's 861. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ortiz rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Scoggins throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Scoggins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Scoggins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Scoggins over Dustin Ortiz. We're leaning Scoggins here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Kevin Lee (11-7) taking on Jesse Ronson (0-4). Lee will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lee is rated at 1197 — 512 points above Ronson's 685. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ronson throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Ronson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Lee over Jesse Ronson. We're leaning Lee here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Leandro Issa (2-2) taking on Jumabieke Tuerxun (0-2).

Issa is rated at 987 — 259 points above Tuerxun's 728. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Issa throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Issa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Issa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leandro Issa over Jumabieke Tuerxun. The model gives Issa a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Adriano Martins (4-2) taking on Juan Manuel Puig (0-1).

Martins is rated at 1070 — 256 points above Puig's 814. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martins throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Martins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Puig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Adriano Martins over Juan Manuel Puig. The model is firm on this one: Martins at 76%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Patrick Walsh (1-0) taking on Daniel Spohn (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Walsh at 1008 versus Spohn at 915. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spohn throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Spohn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Spohn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Spohn over Patrick Walsh. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Spohn at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Catch Weight matchup features Sarah Moras (3-5) taking on Alexis Dufresne (0-1).

Dufresne carries a modest Elo edge (850 to 808), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dufresne throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dufresne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dufresne has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexis Dufresne over Sarah Moras. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dufresne at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Robert Drysdale (0-0) taking on Keith Berish (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Drysdale at 1000 versus Berish at 915. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Berish throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Berish is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Berish has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert Drysdale over Keith Berish. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Drysdale at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.