UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Chris Weidman (12-7) taking on Lyoto Machida (15-8). Weidman will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Machida is rated at 1493 — 433 points above Weidman's 1060. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Weidman is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Machida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Weidman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weidman throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Machida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Weidman over Lyoto Machida.** We're leaning Weidman here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ronda Rousey (6-1) taking on Alexis Davis (7-6).

Rousey is rated at 1203 — 174 points above Davis's 1030. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rousey's knockout artist game against Davis's all-rounder approach. Rousey is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rousey throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rousey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ronda Rousey over Alexis Davis.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rousey at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Uriah Hall (10-8) taking on Thiago Santos (14-9). Hall will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hall at 1378 versus Santos at 1292. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Uriah Hall over Thiago Santos.** The model gives Hall a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Russell Doane (3-4) taking on Marcus Brimage (4-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Doane.

There's a real Elo separation here: Doane at 952 versus Brimage at 806. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Doane's wrestler game against Brimage's striker approach. Doane looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brimage brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brimage throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Brimage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Doane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Russell Doane over Marcus Brimage.** We're leaning Doane here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Urijah Faber (11-6) taking on Alex Caceres (16-12). Caceres is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Faber carries a modest Elo edge (1297 to 1232), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Faber's wrestler game against Caceres's knockout artist approach. Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Caceres is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Faber throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Faber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Urijah Faber over Alex Caceres.** The model gives Faber a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Kenny Robertson (4-4) taking on Ildemar Alcantara (4-2). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Robertson is rated at 1097 — 168 points above Alcantara's 929. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alcantara is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Robertson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Alcantara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kenny Robertson over Ildemar Alcantara.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Robertson at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Bruno Santos (1-1) taking on Chris Camozzi (9-9).

Camozzi carries a modest Elo edge (986 to 942), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bruno Santos over Chris Camozzi.** The model gives Santos a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rob Font (12-7) taking on George Roop (5-7). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Roop.

Font is rated at 1361 — 481 points above Roop's 881. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roop throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Roop is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Font has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: George Roop over Rob Font.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Roop at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Luke Zachrich (1-1) taking on Guilherme Vasconcelos (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Zachrich at 908, Vasconcelos at 896. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zachrich throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Vasconcelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vasconcelos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luke Zachrich over Guilherme Vasconcelos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Zachrich at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Casey (1-2-1) taking on Bubba Bush (0-0).

Casey carries a modest Elo edge (895 to 842), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bubba Bush over Kevin Casey.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bush at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.