UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on Ali Bagautinov (4-2).

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 415 points above Bagautinov's 1188. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over Ali Bagautinov.** The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 77%.

The Welterweight matchup features Rory MacDonald (9-3) taking on Tyron Woodley (9-5-1). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — MacDonald at 1465, Woodley at 1461. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. MacDonald throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Woodley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. MacDonald has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rory MacDonald over Tyron Woodley.** We're leaning MacDonald here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Rafael Cavalcante (1-3).

Bader is rated at 1619 — 677 points above Cavalcante's 942. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cavalcante throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Bader over Rafael Cavalcante.** The model is firm on this one: Bader at 81%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Brendan Schaub (6-4).

Schaub is rated at 1154 — 296 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Schaub looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Schaub the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schaub throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Schaub is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brendan Schaub over Andrei Arlovski.** The model gives Schaub a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-12) taking on Ryan Jimmo (3-3). Preux is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Jimmo carries a modest Elo edge (974 to 917), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Preux's all-rounder game against Jimmo's striker approach. Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jimmo brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Preux throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Preux is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Preux has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Ryan Jimmo.** The model gives Preux a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Kiichi Kunimoto (3-1) taking on Daniel Sarafian (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kunimoto at 1025 versus Sarafian at 888. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kunimoto throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sarafian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Sarafian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Sarafian over Kiichi Kunimoto.** The model gives Sarafian a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Valerie Letourneau (3-2) taking on Elizabeth Phillips (1-2). Letourneau will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Letourneau at 918, Phillips at 923. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phillips throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Elizabeth Phillips over Valerie Letourneau.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Phillips at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Yves Jabouin (5-4) taking on Mike Easton (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Easton at 934 versus Jabouin at 845. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Easton throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Easton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Jabouin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Easton over Yves Jabouin.** The model gives Easton a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Tae Hyun Bang (2-2) taking on Kajan Johnson (4-2). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1168 — 217 points above Bang's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bang throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kajan Johnson over Tae Hyun Bang.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Michinori Tanaka (2-2) taking on Roland Delorme (3-2). Delorme is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Tanaka at 929, Delorme at 900. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Delorme throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Delorme is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Tanaka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roland Delorme over Michinori Tanaka.** The model gives Delorme a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jason Saggo (3-2) taking on Josh Shockley (0-1).

Saggo is rated at 1013 — 203 points above Shockley's 810. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shockley throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Shockley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Shockley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Shockley over Jason Saggo.** The model gives Shockley a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.