UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-4) taking on Fabio Maldonado (5-5). Miocic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Miocic is rated at 1847 — 803 points above Maldonado's 1043. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Miocic's striker game against Maldonado's all-rounder approach. Miocic brings a versatile approach, while Maldonado is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maldonado throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Fabio Maldonado. We're leaning Miocic here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Antonio Carlos Junior (7-4) taking on Vitor Miranda (3-3).

Junior is rated at 1144 — 211 points above Miranda's 933. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Junior's wrestler game against Miranda's striker approach. Junior looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Miranda brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miranda throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Miranda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Miranda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antonio Carlos Junior over Vitor Miranda. The model gives Junior a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Warlley Alves (8-7) taking on Marcio Alexandre Junior (0-2). Junior will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Alves at 895 versus Junior at 815. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Junior throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Junior is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Junior has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Warlley Alves over Marcio Alexandre Junior. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alves at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Alexander Yakovlev (3-5). Yakovlev is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Maia is rated at 1371 — 401 points above Yakovlev's 970. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Maia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Yakovlev is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Maia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maia throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Yakovlev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demian Maia over Alexander Yakovlev. The model gives Maia a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Robert Peralta (4-2) taking on Rony Jason (4-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Peralta at 1039, Jason at 1010. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Peralta brings a versatile approach, while Jason is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Jason the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Peralta throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Peralta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Jason has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rony Jason over Robert Peralta. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jason at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Rashid Magomedov (4-1) taking on Rodrigo Damm (3-3).

Magomedov is rated at 1374 — 516 points above Damm's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Damm throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Damm is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Damm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rashid Magomedov over Rodrigo Damm. The model gives Magomedov a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Elias Silverio (3-1) taking on Ernest Chavez (1-1). Silverio is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Silverio carries a modest Elo edge (972 to 895), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silverio throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Silverio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Chavez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elias Silverio over Ernest Chavez. We're leaning Silverio here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Gasan Umalatov (1-2) taking on Paulo Thiago (5-7). Thiago will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Umalatov carries a modest Elo edge (878 to 811), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Umalatov throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Thiago is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Umalatov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paulo Thiago over Gasan Umalatov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Thiago at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Edimilson Souza (3-0) taking on Mark Eddiva (1-2). Souza is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Souza is rated at 1166 — 331 points above Eddiva's 836. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Souza rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Souza throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Eddiva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Eddiva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edimilson Souza over Mark Eddiva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Souza at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Ricardo Abreu (1-0) taking on Wagner Silva (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Abreu at 998 versus Silva at 853. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wagner Silva over Ricardo Abreu. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7) taking on Richardson Moreira (0-1).

Lima is rated at 1275 — 445 points above Moreira's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreira throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Moreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Richardson Moreira over Marcos Rogerio de Lima. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moreira at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Pedro Munhoz (10-9) taking on Matt Hobar (1-1). Hobar is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Munhoz is rated at 1211 — 315 points above Hobar's 897. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hobar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hobar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Hobar over Pedro Munhoz. The model gives Hobar a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.