UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Renan Barao (9-7) taking on Urijah Faber (11-6). Barao will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Faber is rated at 1297 — 476 points above Barao's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Barao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Faber the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barao throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Faber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Barao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Renan Barao over Urijah Faber.** We're leaning Barao here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight championship matchup features Jose Aldo (14-8) taking on Ricardo Lamas (10-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Aldo at 1420 versus Lamas at 1285. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lamas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Aldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jose Aldo over Ricardo Lamas.** We're leaning Aldo here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alistair Overeem (12-7) taking on Frank Mir (16-10).

Overeem is rated at 1412 — 160 points above Mir's 1252. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Overeem's striker game against Mir's submission artist approach. Overeem brings a versatile approach, while Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Overeem throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Overeem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alistair Overeem over Frank Mir.** The model gives Overeem a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Ali Bagautinov (4-2) taking on John Lineker (12-3).

Lineker is rated at 1455 — 267 points above Bagautinov's 1188. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bagautinov's wrestler game against Lineker's striker approach. Bagautinov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lineker brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bagautinov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Bagautinov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ali Bagautinov over John Lineker.** The model gives Bagautinov a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Abel Trujillo (6-3) taking on Jamie Varner (3-5).

Trujillo is rated at 1031 — 257 points above Varner's 774. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Trujillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Varner looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Varner the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trujillo throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Varner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Trujillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jamie Varner over Abel Trujillo.** The model gives Varner a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Alan Patrick (5-3) taking on John Makdessi (11-8). Patrick is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Makdessi at 989 versus Patrick at 863. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Patrick's wrestler game against Makdessi's striker approach. Patrick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Makdessi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Patrick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Patrick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alan Patrick over John Makdessi.** The model gives Patrick a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Chris Cariaso (7-5) taking on Danny Martinez (0-3). Martinez is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Cariaso carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 878), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cariaso throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cariaso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Cariaso over Danny Martinez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cariaso at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Nick Catone (3-4) taking on Tom Watson (2-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Catone at 1004 versus Watson at 868. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Catone's wrestler game against Watson's striker approach. Catone looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Watson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Watson throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Catone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Catone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nick Catone over Tom Watson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Catone at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Al Iaquinta (9-5) taking on Kevin Lee (11-7). Lee will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Iaquinta at 1195, Lee at 1197. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Iaquinta's striker game against Lee's wrestler approach. Iaquinta brings a versatile approach, while Lee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Iaquinta throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Iaquinta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Al Iaquinta over Kevin Lee.** We're leaning Iaquinta here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Clint Hester (4-2) taking on Andy Enz (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hester at 892 versus Enz at 805. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hester throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hester is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Enz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Clint Hester over Andy Enz.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hester at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Rashid Magomedov (4-1) taking on Anthony Rocco Martin (9-5). Martin is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Martin carries a modest Elo edge (1419 to 1374), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martin throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Martin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Martin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin over Rashid Magomedov.** We're leaning Martin here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Gasan Umalatov (1-2). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Magny is rated at 1270 — 393 points above Umalatov's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Umalatov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Neil Magny over Gasan Umalatov.** The model is firm on this one: Magny at 76%.