UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Benson Henderson (11-3) taking on Josh Thomson (3-4).

Henderson is rated at 1610 — 253 points above Thomson's 1357. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Henderson's all-rounder game against Thomson's striker approach. Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Thomson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Thomson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Henderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Benson Henderson over Josh Thomson. We're leaning Henderson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-5) taking on Gabriel Gonzaga (12-10). Miocic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Miocic is rated at 1974 — 902 points above Gonzaga's 1072. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Miocic brings a versatile approach, while Gonzaga is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Gonzaga the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Gabriel Gonzaga. We're leaning Miocic here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-14) taking on Adriano Martins (4-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cerrone.

Cerrone carries a modest Elo edge (1238 to 1163), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Martins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Adriano Martins over Donald Cerrone. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Martins at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-19) taking on Darren Elkins (19-11).

Elkins carries a modest Elo edge (1191 to 1112), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Elkins over Jeremy Stephens. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elkins at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-13) taking on Sergio Pettis (9-5). Caceres is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Pettis carries a modest Elo edge (1314 to 1264), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Caceres's submission artist game against Pettis's striker approach. Caceres is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pettis brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergio Pettis over Alex Caceres. The model gives Pettis a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Eddie Wineland (6-10) taking on Yves Jabouin (5-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Wineland at 1019 versus Jabouin at 906. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wineland throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jabouin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Jabouin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eddie Wineland over Yves Jabouin. The model gives Wineland a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chico Camus (3-4) taking on Yaotzin Meza (2-4). Meza is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Camus carries a modest Elo edge (977 to 902), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Camus is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Meza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Meza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camus throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Meza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Camus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yaotzin Meza over Chico Camus. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Meza at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Hugo Viana (3-3) taking on Ramiro Hernandez (0-2).

Viana carries a modest Elo edge (880 to 803), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Viana throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Viana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hugo Viana over Ramiro Hernandez. We're leaning Viana here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Daron Cruickshank (6-6) taking on Mike Rio (1-3).

Cruickshank is rated at 957 — 195 points above Rio's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cruickshank throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Cruickshank has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daron Cruickshank over Mike Rio. We're leaning Cruickshank here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features George Sullivan (3-4) taking on Mike Rhodes (0-3).

Sullivan is rated at 939 — 158 points above Rhodes's 781. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rhodes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rhodes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rhodes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Rhodes over George Sullivan. We're leaning Rhodes here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Nikita Krylov (12-9) taking on Walt Harris (6-9).

Krylov is rated at 1472 — 199 points above Harris's 1273. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Krylov's submission artist game against Harris's striker approach. Krylov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Harris brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krylov throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Walt Harris. The model is firm on this one: Krylov at 80%.