UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs Lim: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs Lim lands on Saturday, January 4, 2014 in Singapore, Singapore with 10 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarec Saffiedine vs Hyun Gyu LimWelterweight | Hyun Gyu Lim | Lean | 56% |
| Tatsuya Kawajiri vs Sean SorianoFeatherweight | Sean Soriano | Confident | 68% |
| Kiichi Kunimoto vs Luiz DutraWelterweight | Kiichi Kunimoto | Lean | 56% |
| Kyung Ho Kang vs Shunichi ShimizuBantamweight | Kyung Ho Kang | Confident | 66% |
| Max Holloway vs Will ChopeFeatherweight | Max Holloway | Confident | 68% |
| Katsunori Kikuno vs Quinn MulhernLightweight | Katsunori Kikuno | Toss-up | 52% |
| Royston Wee vs Dave GaleraBantamweight | Royston Wee | Lean | 60% |
| Mairbek Taisumov vs Tae Hyun BangLightweight | Mairbek Taisumov | Lean | 55% |
| Dustin Kimura vs Jon Delos ReyesBantamweight | Jon Delos Reyes | Toss-up | 55% |
| Russell Doane vs Leandro IssaBantamweight | Russell Doane | Lean | 55% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Tarec Saffiedine vs Hyun Gyu Lim
The Welterweight championship matchup features Tarec Saffiedine (2-3) taking on Hyun Gyu Lim (3-3). Lim is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.
Saffiedine is rated at 1116 — 241 points above Lim's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Saffiedine's all-rounder game against Lim's knockout artist approach. Saffiedine is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lim is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lim throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Saffiedine has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Hyun Gyu Lim over Tarec Saffiedine. The model gives Lim a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Tatsuya Kawajiri vs Sean Soriano
The Featherweight matchup features Tatsuya Kawajiri (3-2) taking on Sean Soriano (0-4).
Kawajiri is rated at 1092 — 398 points above Soriano's 694. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Soriano throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Soriano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Soriano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Sean Soriano over Tatsuya Kawajiri. We're leaning Soriano here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Kiichi Kunimoto vs Luiz Dutra
The Welterweight matchup features Kiichi Kunimoto (3-1) taking on Luiz Dutra (0-1).
Kunimoto is rated at 1025 — 152 points above Dutra's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Dutra throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dutra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dutra has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kiichi Kunimoto over Luiz Dutra. The model gives Kunimoto a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Kyung Ho Kang vs Shunichi Shimizu
The Bantamweight matchup features Kyung Ho Kang (8-4) taking on Shunichi Shimizu (0-0).
Kang is rated at 1029 — 171 points above Shimizu's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kang throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Shimizu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kyung Ho Kang over Shunichi Shimizu. We're leaning Kang here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Max Holloway vs Will Chope
The Featherweight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Will Chope (0-0).
Holloway is rated at 1897 — 1006 points above Chope's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Chope is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Chope has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Max Holloway over Will Chope. We're leaning Holloway here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Katsunori Kikuno vs Quinn Mulhern
The Lightweight matchup features Katsunori Kikuno (2-2) taking on Quinn Mulhern (0-1).
Kikuno carries a modest Elo edge (948 to 871), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mulhern throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Mulhern is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kikuno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Katsunori Kikuno over Quinn Mulhern. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kikuno at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Royston Wee vs Dave Galera
The Bantamweight matchup features Royston Wee (2-0) taking on Dave Galera (0-0).
Wee carries a modest Elo edge (990 to 915), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Galera throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Galera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Galera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Royston Wee over Dave Galera. The model gives Wee a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Mairbek Taisumov vs Tae Hyun Bang
The Lightweight matchup features Mairbek Taisumov (7-1) taking on Tae Hyun Bang (2-2).
Taisumov is rated at 1362 — 412 points above Bang's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Taisumov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bang throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mairbek Taisumov over Tae Hyun Bang. The model gives Taisumov a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.
Dustin Kimura vs Jon Delos Reyes
The Bantamweight matchup features Dustin Kimura (2-2) taking on Jon Delos Reyes (1-2). Kimura will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kimura at 907, Reyes at 880. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kimura throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jon Delos Reyes over Dustin Kimura. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Reyes at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Russell Doane vs Leandro Issa
The Bantamweight matchup features Russell Doane (3-4) taking on Leandro Issa (2-2).
Issa carries a modest Elo edge (987 to 952), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Issa throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Issa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Issa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Russell Doane over Leandro Issa. The model gives Doane a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.