UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Weidman (12-7) taking on Anderson Silva (17-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 1154 versus Weidman at 1060. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Weidman is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Weidman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Weidman over Anderson Silva.** We're leaning Weidman here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ronda Rousey (6-1) taking on Miesha Tate (7-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rousey at 1203 versus Tate at 1077. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Rousey's knockout artist game against Tate's all-rounder approach. Rousey is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Tate is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tate throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Tate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Rousey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ronda Rousey over Miesha Tate.** We're leaning Rousey here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Travis Browne (9-6-1) taking on Josh Barnett (6-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Browne.

Barnett is rated at 1454 — 323 points above Browne's 1131. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Browne is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Barnett is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Barnett the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barnett throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Browne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Barnett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Travis Browne over Josh Barnett.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Browne at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Fabricio Camoes (1-3-1).

Miller is rated at 1213 — 368 points above Camoes's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Camoes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Camoes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jim Miller over Fabricio Camoes.** We're leaning Miller here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Diego Brandao (6-3). Poirier is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 550 points above Brandao's 1131. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Poirier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brandao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Poirier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Brandao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Brandao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Diego Brandao.** We're leaning Poirier here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Uriah Hall (10-8) taking on Chris Leben (12-9). Hall will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hall is rated at 1378 — 523 points above Leben's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hall's striker game against Leben's all-rounder approach. Hall brings a versatile approach, while Leben is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Uriah Hall over Chris Leben.** We're leaning Hall here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (15-15) taking on Gleison Tibau (16-11).

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 226 points above Tibau's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Tibau's wrestler approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Tibau looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Johnson over Gleison Tibau.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Siver (11-8) taking on Manvel Gamburyan (6-7). Siver will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Siver is rated at 1214 — 242 points above Gamburyan's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Siver is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gamburyan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gamburyan the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Siver throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamburyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dennis Siver over Manvel Gamburyan.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Siver at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features John Howard (7-6) taking on Siyar Bahadurzada (4-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Bahadurzada.

Bahadurzada is rated at 1086 — 154 points above Howard's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Howard throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Bahadurzada has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Howard over Siyar Bahadurzada.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Howard at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features William Macario (1-2) taking on Bobby Voelker (0-3).

Macario carries a modest Elo edge (789 to 736), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Voelker throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Macario is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Macario has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: William Macario over Bobby Voelker.** We're leaning Macario here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Robert Peralta (4-2) taking on Estevan Payan (0-2).

Peralta is rated at 1039 — 280 points above Payan's 760. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Peralta throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Peralta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Peralta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Robert Peralta over Estevan Payan.** We're leaning Peralta here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.