UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Mark Hunt (8-7-1) taking on Antonio Silva (3-6-1). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Hunt is rated at 1169 — 237 points above Silva's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hunt's all-rounder game against Silva's striker approach. Hunt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hunt throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hunt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Hunt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Hunt over Antonio Silva.** The model gives Hunt a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mauricio Rua (11-11-1) taking on James Te Huna (5-4).

Rua carries a modest Elo edge (876 to 843), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Rua's all-rounder game against Huna's striker approach. Rua is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Huna brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Huna throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Huna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: James Te Huna over Mauricio Rua.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Huna at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Anthony Perosh (5-6).

Bader is rated at 1619 — 747 points above Perosh's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perosh throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Perosh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Perosh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Bader over Anthony Perosh.** The model gives Bader a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Soa Palelei (4-2) taking on Pat Barry (5-6). Palelei is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Palelei at 1009 versus Barry at 910. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Palelei brings a versatile approach, while Barry is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Barry the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barry throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Palelei is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Barry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Soa Palelei over Pat Barry.** The model gives Palelei a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Clint Hester (4-2) taking on Dylan Andrews (2-2). Hester will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hester at 892 versus Andrews at 780. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hester throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Hester has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Clint Hester over Dylan Andrews.** The model gives Hester a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Bethe Correia (5-5-1) taking on Julie Kedzie (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Correia at 883, Kedzie at 877. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kedzie throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kedzie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Correia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Julie Kedzie over Bethe Correia.** The model gives Kedzie a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Takeya Mizugaki (8-5) taking on Nam Phan (2-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Mizugaki at 995 versus Phan at 859. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Mizugaki's all-rounder game against Phan's striker approach. Mizugaki is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Phan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phan throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mizugaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Phan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Takeya Mizugaki over Nam Phan.** We're leaning Mizugaki here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Caio Magalhaes (4-2) taking on Nick Ring (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Magalhaes at 1099 versus Ring at 1015. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Magalhaes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Ring is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Magalhaes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ring throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Magalhaes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Ring has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Caio Magalhaes over Nick Ring.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Magalhaes at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Justin Scoggins (4-4) taking on Richie Vaculik (1-2). Vaculik will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Scoggins at 861 versus Vaculik at 766. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vaculik throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Vaculik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vaculik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Scoggins over Richie Vaculik.** The model gives Scoggins a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Krzysztof Jotko (11-5) taking on Bruno Santos (1-1).

Jotko is rated at 1222 — 279 points above Santos's 942. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Krzysztof Jotko over Bruno Santos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jotko at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Garcia (5-4) taking on Ben Wall (0-1).

Garcia is rated at 1006 — 237 points above Wall's 770. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wall throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ben Wall over Alex Garcia.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wall at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.