The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale: Predictions & Analysis
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale lands on Saturday, November 30, 2013 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz vs Gray MaynardLightweight | Nate Diaz | Toss-up | 54% |
| Julianna Pena vs Jessica RakoczyWomen's Bantamweight | Julianna Pena | Confident | 67% |
| Chris Holdsworth vs Davey GrantBantamweight | Davey Grant | Lean | 56% |
| Jessamyn Duke vs Peggy MorganWomen's Bantamweight | Jessamyn Duke | Lean | 58% |
| Raquel Pennington vs Roxanne ModafferiWomen's Bantamweight | Raquel Pennington | Lean | 55% |
| Akira Corassani vs Maximo BlancoFeatherweight | Maximo Blanco | Confident | 70% |
| Tom Niinimaki vs Rani YahyaFeatherweight | Rani Yahya | Confident | 71% |
| Jared Rosholt vs Walt HarrisHeavyweight | Jared Rosholt | Toss-up | 53% |
| Sean Spencer vs Drew DoberWelterweight | Drew Dober | Lean | 56% |
| Josh Sampo vs Ryan BenoitFlyweight | Ryan Benoit | Confident | 67% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Nate Diaz vs Gray Maynard
The Lightweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Gray Maynard (11-6-1). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
Diaz is rated at 1557 — 583 points above Maynard's 975. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Diaz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Maynard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Diaz the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Maynard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nate Diaz over Gray Maynard. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Diaz at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Julianna Pena vs Jessica Rakoczy
The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Julianna Pena (8-3) taking on Jessica Rakoczy (0-1).
Pena is rated at 1323 — 492 points above Rakoczy's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rakoczy throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rakoczy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rakoczy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Julianna Pena over Jessica Rakoczy. We're leaning Pena here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Chris Holdsworth vs Davey Grant
The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Holdsworth (1-0) taking on Davey Grant (8-6).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Holdsworth at 1178, Grant at 1200. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Davey Grant over Chris Holdsworth. The model gives Grant a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Jessamyn Duke vs Peggy Morgan
The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jessamyn Duke (1-2) taking on Peggy Morgan (0-0).
Morgan is rated at 915 — 153 points above Duke's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Morgan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Morgan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Morgan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jessamyn Duke over Peggy Morgan. The model gives Duke a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Raquel Pennington vs Roxanne Modafferi
The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-5) taking on Roxanne Modafferi (4-7).
Pennington is rated at 1411 — 433 points above Modafferi's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.
Stylistically this is Pennington's all-rounder game against Modafferi's striker approach. Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Modafferi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Modafferi throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Modafferi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Modafferi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Roxanne Modafferi. The model gives Pennington a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.
Akira Corassani vs Maximo Blanco
The Featherweight matchup features Akira Corassani (3-2) taking on Maximo Blanco (4-4). Blanco will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
There's a real Elo separation here: Blanco at 1013 versus Corassani at 866. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is Corassani's striker game against Blanco's all-rounder approach. Corassani brings a versatile approach, while Blanco is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Corassani throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Blanco is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Blanco has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Maximo Blanco over Akira Corassani. We're leaning Blanco here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Tom Niinimaki vs Rani Yahya
The Featherweight matchup features Tom Niinimaki (1-2) taking on Rani Yahya (13-5-1). Niinimaki is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Yahya is rated at 1030 — 259 points above Niinimaki's 771. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Yahya throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Yahya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Niinimaki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rani Yahya over Tom Niinimaki. We're leaning Yahya here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Jared Rosholt vs Walt Harris
The Heavyweight matchup features Jared Rosholt (6-1) taking on Walt Harris (6-8). Harris is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Rosholt carries a modest Elo edge (1186 to 1133), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Rosholt rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
Stylistically this is Rosholt's wrestler game against Harris's striker approach. Rosholt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Harris brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Harris throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jared Rosholt over Walt Harris. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rosholt at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Sean Spencer vs Drew Dober
The Welterweight matchup features Sean Spencer (3-4) taking on Drew Dober (13-11). Spencer is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Dober is rated at 1083 — 221 points above Spencer's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Spencer's striker game against Dober's all-rounder approach. Spencer brings a versatile approach, while Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Spencer throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dober is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dober has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Drew Dober over Sean Spencer. The model gives Dober a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Josh Sampo vs Ryan Benoit
The Flyweight matchup features Josh Sampo (1-2) taking on Ryan Benoit (3-5). Benoit will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sampo at 832, Benoit at 810. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Benoit throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Benoit is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Benoit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ryan Benoit over Josh Sampo. We're leaning Benoit here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.