UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Johny Hendricks (13-7). St-Pierre is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 953 points above Hendricks's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is St-Pierre's wrestler game against Hendricks's striker approach. St-Pierre looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hendricks brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. St-Pierre throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Johny Hendricks.** We're leaning St-Pierre here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Chael Sonnen (7-6).

Sonnen is rated at 1430 — 309 points above Evans's 1121. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Evans's striker game against Sonnen's wrestler approach. Evans brings a versatile approach, while Sonnen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sonnen throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sonnen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Evans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rashad Evans over Chael Sonnen.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Evans at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Rory MacDonald (9-3).

MacDonald is rated at 1465 — 169 points above Lawler's 1297. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lawler's striker game against MacDonald's all-rounder approach. Lawler brings a versatile approach, while MacDonald is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. MacDonald throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. MacDonald has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rory MacDonald over Robbie Lawler.** We're leaning MacDonald here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Tyron Woodley (9-5-1) taking on Josh Koscheck (15-9).

Woodley is rated at 1461 — 522 points above Koscheck's 939. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodley throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Woodley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Tyron Woodley.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Koscheck at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Ali Bagautinov (4-2) taking on Tim Elliott (9-11). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Elliott.

Elliott carries a modest Elo edge (1241 to 1188), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Elliott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ali Bagautinov over Tim Elliott.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bagautinov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Evan Dunham (11-8-1). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Cerrone carries a modest Elo edge (1054 to 1019), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Dunham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Evan Dunham.** The model gives Cerrone a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Thales Leites (12-8) taking on Ed Herman (13-11).

There's a real Elo separation here: Leites at 1176 versus Herman at 1045. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Leites looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Herman is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Leites the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Leites has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thales Leites over Ed Herman.** The model gives Leites a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Rick Story (12-6) taking on Brian Ebersole (5-2). Ebersole is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Story is rated at 1358 — 293 points above Ebersole's 1065. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Story throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Story is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rick Story over Brian Ebersole.** The model gives Story a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Erik Perez (6-2) taking on Edwin Figueroa (2-3).

Perez is rated at 1303 — 449 points above Figueroa's 854. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Perez's wrestler game against Figueroa's knockout artist approach. Perez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Figueroa is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erik Perez over Edwin Figueroa.** We're leaning Perez here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Jason High (2-2) taking on Anthony Lapsley (0-1).

High is rated at 1084 — 279 points above Lapsley's 805. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. High throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. High is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Lapsley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason High over Anthony Lapsley.** The model gives High a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sergio Pettis (8-5) taking on Will Campuzano (0-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Campuzano.

Pettis is rated at 1235 — 471 points above Campuzano's 763. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Campuzano throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Campuzano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sergio Pettis over Will Campuzano.** The model gives Pettis a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Gian Villante (7-10) taking on Cody Donovan (1-2).

Donovan carries a modest Elo edge (736 to 705), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Donovan throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Donovan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Donovan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody Donovan over Gian Villante.** The model gives Donovan a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.