UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Tim Kennedy (3-1) taking on Rafael Natal (9-6-1). Natal will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Kennedy is rated at 1227 — 295 points above Natal's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kennedy throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Natal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Natal over Tim Kennedy. The model gives Natal a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Alexis Davis (7-6) taking on Liz Carmouche (5-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Carmouche at 1127 versus Davis at 1030. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Carmouche looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Carmouche the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carmouche throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmouche is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexis Davis over Liz Carmouche. The model gives Davis a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Yoel Romero (9-3) taking on Ronny Markes (3-1).

Romero is rated at 1613 — 696 points above Markes's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Romero throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Markes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Romero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ronny Markes over Yoel Romero. The model is firm on this one: Markes at 78%.

The Lightweight matchup features Rustam Khabilov (9-3) taking on Jorge Masvidal (12-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Masvidal.

Masvidal is rated at 1579 — 190 points above Khabilov's 1389. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Khabilov brings a versatile approach, while Masvidal is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Masvidal the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Khabilov throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Khabilov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 15.2 more per 15 minutes. Khabilov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rustam Khabilov over Jorge Masvidal. We're leaning Khabilov here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (13-7) taking on Colton Smith (1-2). Chiesa will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 686 points above Smith's 804. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chiesa throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Chiesa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Colton Smith. We're leaning Chiesa here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on James Krause (8-4). Krause is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Krause is rated at 1436 — 260 points above Green's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krause throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: King Green over James Krause. We're leaning Green here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Francisco Rivera (4-5) taking on George Roop (5-7). Roop is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rivera at 972 versus Roop at 881. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Roop is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Rivera over George Roop. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rivera at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Bermudez (9-7) taking on Steven Siler (5-3). Siler is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Bermudez is rated at 1068 — 180 points above Siler's 888. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Bermudez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Steven Siler. We're leaning Bermudez here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Amanda Nunes (15-2) taking on Germaine de Randamie (7-2).

Nunes is rated at 1636 — 295 points above Randamie's 1341. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nunes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Randamie is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nunes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 14.1 more per 15 minutes. Randamie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Nunes over Germaine de Randamie. We're leaning Nunes here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Lorenz Larkin (4-5) taking on Chris Camozzi (9-9). Camozzi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Larkin is rated at 1501 — 516 points above Camozzi's 986. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Larkin's striker game against Camozzi's all-rounder approach. Larkin brings a versatile approach, while Camozzi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Camozzi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Larkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lorenz Larkin over Chris Camozzi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Larkin at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Yves Edwards (10-9) taking on Yancy Medeiros (6-7).

Medeiros is rated at 999 — 181 points above Edwards's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Edwards's all-rounder game against Medeiros's knockout artist approach. Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Medeiros is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Medeiros has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yancy Medeiros over Yves Edwards. We're leaning Medeiros here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Seth Baczynski (5-5) taking on Neil Magny (24-12). Magny will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Magny is rated at 1270 — 474 points above Baczynski's 796. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Baczynski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Magny looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Magny the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Magny has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Neil Magny over Seth Baczynski. The model gives Magny a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Derek Brunson (14-6) taking on Brian Houston (0-1).

Brunson is rated at 1402 — 529 points above Houston's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brunson throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Houston has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derek Brunson over Brian Houston. The model is firm on this one: Brunson at 76%.