UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Jake Shields (4-2) taking on Demian Maia (22-10).

There's a real Elo separation here: Maia at 1371 versus Shields at 1232. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Shields's striker game against Maia's wrestler approach. Shields brings a versatile approach, while Maia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shields throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Demian Maia over Jake Shields.** We're leaning Maia here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-3) taking on Erick Silva (7-7). Kim is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Kim is rated at 1318 — 367 points above Silva's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Kim looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Kim the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over Erick Silva.** We're leaning Kim here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Thiago Silva (6-3) taking on Matt Hamill (10-4).

Silva is rated at 1362 — 212 points above Hamill's 1150. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hamill brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamill throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Silva over Matt Hamill.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Fabio Maldonado (5-5) taking on Joey Beltran (3-5).

Maldonado is rated at 1043 — 228 points above Beltran's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Maldonado's all-rounder game against Beltran's striker approach. Maldonado is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Beltran brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maldonado throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Beltran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Beltran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fabio Maldonado over Joey Beltran.** The model gives Maldonado a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Rousimar Palhares (7-4) taking on Mike Pierce (9-4).

Palhares carries a modest Elo edge (1251 to 1171), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Palhares is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pierce looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Pierce the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Palhares throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pierce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Pierce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Pierce over Rousimar Palhares.** We're leaning Pierce here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raphael Assuncao (12-6) taking on TJ Dillashaw (13-4).

Dillashaw is rated at 1581 — 482 points above Assuncao's 1099. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Assuncao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dillashaw is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dillashaw the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dillashaw is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Raphael Assuncao.** The model gives Dillashaw a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Igor Araujo (2-1) taking on Ildemar Alcantara (4-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Araujo at 954, Alcantara at 929. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alcantara throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Araujo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ildemar Alcantara over Igor Araujo.** The model gives Alcantara a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Yan Cabral (2-2) taking on David Mitchell (1-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Cabral at 900, Mitchell at 903. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitchell throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Cabral has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: David Mitchell over Yan Cabral.** The model gives Mitchell a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Chris Cariaso (7-5) taking on Iliarde Santos (0-2). Santos is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Cariaso is rated at 931 — 211 points above Santos's 720. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cariaso throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cariaso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Cariaso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Cariaso over Iliarde Santos.** We're leaning Cariaso here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Alan Patrick (5-3) taking on Garett Whiteley (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Patrick at 863 versus Whiteley at 736. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whiteley throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Whiteley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Whiteley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alan Patrick over Garett Whiteley.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Patrick at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.