UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen
Saturday, August 17, 2013·Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Model Record: 10/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✓
Chael Sonnen won by Submission (R1)
Sonnen 55%45% Rua
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +82(favors Sonnen)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Sonnen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Sonnen)
Heavyweight✓
Travis Browne won by KO/TKO (R1)
Browne 64%36% Overeem
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +228(favors Browne)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Overeem)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Browne)
Bantamweight✓
Urijah Faber won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Faber 63%37% Alcantara
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +150(favors Faber)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Faber)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Alcantara)
Welterweight✓
Matt Brown won by KO/TKO (R1)
Brown 69%31% Pyle
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -6(favors Pyle)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Brown)
Middleweight✗
John Howard won by Decision - Split (R3)
Howard 38%62% Hall
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +22(favors Howard)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Hall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Howard)
Lightweight✗
Michael Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 47%53% Lauzon
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -213(favors Lauzon)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Lauzon)
Bantamweight✓
Michael McDonald won by Submission (R2)
McDonald 64%36% Pickett
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +8(favors McDonald)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Pickett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Pickett)
Featherweight✓
Conor McGregor won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
McGregor 56%44% Holloway
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +83(favors McGregor)
→Striking volume advantage: +12.7(favors McGregor)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Holloway)
Featherweight✓
Steven Siler won by KO/TKO (R1)
Siler 71%29% Brown
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +153(favors Siler)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Siler)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Brown)
Featherweight✓
Diego Brandao won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brandao 66%34% Pineda
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Submission Artist — Submission Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +165(favors Brandao)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Pineda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Pineda)
Featherweight✓
Manvel Gamburyan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gamburyan 60%40% Miller
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -209(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Gamburyan)
Light Heavyweight✓
Ovince Saint Preux won by KO/TKO (R1)
Preux 63%37% Donovan
LEAN
→Elo gap: -10(favors Donovan)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Preux)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.3(favors Donovan)
Lightweight✗
James Vick won by Submission (R1)
Vick 37%63% Nijem
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -91(favors Nijem)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Nijem)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.3(favors Nijem)