UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight championship matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on John Moraga (8-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Moraga.

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 437 points above Moraga's 1166. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one, while Moraga has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Moraga's wrestler approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Moraga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Moraga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over John Moraga.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Rory MacDonald (9-3) taking on Jake Ellenberger (10-10). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

MacDonald is rated at 1465 — 619 points above Ellenberger's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is MacDonald's wrestler game against Ellenberger's striker approach. MacDonald looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ellenberger brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. MacDonald throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Ellenberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rory MacDonald over Jake Ellenberger.** We're leaning MacDonald here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Bobby Voelker (0-3).

Lawler is rated at 1297 — 560 points above Voelker's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Voelker throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Voelker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Robbie Lawler over Bobby Voelker.** We're leaning Lawler here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Liz Carmouche (5-4) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-12). Carmouche is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Carmouche at 1127, Andrade at 1115. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Carmouche's wrestler game against Andrade's knockout artist approach. Carmouche looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Andrade is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carmouche throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Liz Carmouche over Jessica Andrade.** The model gives Carmouche a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jorge Masvidal (12-9) taking on Michael Chiesa (13-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Masvidal at 1579 versus Chiesa at 1490. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Masvidal's knockout artist game against Chiesa's wrestler approach. Masvidal is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Chiesa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Masvidal throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Masvidal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Masvidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jorge Masvidal over Michael Chiesa.** The model gives Masvidal a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Danny Castillo (7-6) taking on Tim Means (15-13). Means is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Castillo carries a modest Elo edge (951 to 872), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Castillo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Castillo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Castillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Danny Castillo over Tim Means.** We're leaning Castillo here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Melvin Guillard (12-8) taking on Mac Danzig (5-7).

Guillard is rated at 1177 — 257 points above Danzig's 920. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danzig throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Danzig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Melvin Guillard over Mac Danzig.** The model gives Guillard a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Daron Cruickshank (6-5) taking on Yves Edwards (10-9).

Cruickshank carries a modest Elo edge (879 to 818), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Cruickshank looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cruickshank the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruickshank is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daron Cruickshank over Yves Edwards.** The model gives Cruickshank a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-11) taking on Trevor Smith (5-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Herman at 1045 versus Smith at 934. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Herman is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Smith looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Smith the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ed Herman over Trevor Smith.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Herman at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Germaine de Randamie (7-2) taking on Julie Kedzie (0-1).

Randamie is rated at 1341 — 464 points above Kedzie's 877. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kedzie throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kedzie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kedzie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Germaine de Randamie over Julie Kedzie.** The model gives Randamie a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Justin Salas (3-3) taking on Aaron Riley (3-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Salas at 843, Riley at 858. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salas throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Salas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Riley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Salas over Aaron Riley.** The model gives Salas a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Yaotzin Meza (2-3) taking on John Albert (1-3). Meza will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Meza is rated at 893 — 168 points above Albert's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Albert throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Albert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Albert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yaotzin Meza over John Albert.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Meza at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.