UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-9) taking on Luke Rockhold (6-4). Rockhold is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rockhold carries a modest Elo edge (1302 to 1255), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Belfort's knockout artist game against Rockhold's all-rounder approach. Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Rockhold is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belfort throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rockhold is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rockhold has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vitor Belfort over Luke Rockhold.** The model gives Belfort a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacare Souza (9-6) taking on Chris Camozzi (9-9). Camozzi will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Souza is rated at 1187 — 202 points above Camozzi's 986. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Camozzi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Camozzi over Jacare Souza.** The model gives Camozzi a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Evan Dunham (11-8-1).

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 263 points above Dunham's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Anjos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dunham is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Anjos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Evan Dunham.** The model is firm on this one: Anjos at 77%.

The Middleweight matchup features Rafael Natal (9-6-1) taking on Joao Zeferino (0-1).

Natal carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 870), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Natal throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Zeferino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Natal over Joao Zeferino.** The model is firm on this one: Natal at 78%.

The Featherweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Hacran Dias (3-4).

Lentz is rated at 1159 — 179 points above Dias's 980. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Dias has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nik Lentz over Hacran Dias.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lentz at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on Mike Rio (1-2).

Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 512 points above Rio's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trinaldo throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Rio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Rio over Francisco Trinaldo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rio at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on John Cholish (1-1). Cholish will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Tibau at 1019, Cholish at 1001. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cholish throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Cholish has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gleison Tibau over John Cholish.** The model gives Tibau a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Paulo Thiago (5-7) taking on Michel Prazeres (10-3). Thiago is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Prazeres is rated at 1157 — 345 points above Thiago's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thiago throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Thiago is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Prazeres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paulo Thiago over Michel Prazeres.** We're leaning Thiago here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Iuri Alcantara (10-6) taking on Iliarde Santos (0-2). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Alcantara is rated at 1046 — 326 points above Santos's 720. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alcantara throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Iuri Alcantara over Iliarde Santos.** The model gives Alcantara a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Fabio Maldonado (5-5) taking on Roger Hollett (0-1).

Maldonado is rated at 1043 — 182 points above Hollett's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maldonado throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Maldonado is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Maldonado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fabio Maldonado over Roger Hollett.** We're leaning Maldonado here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features John Lineker (12-3) taking on Azamat Gashimov (0-1).

Lineker is rated at 1455 — 638 points above Gashimov's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gashimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Lineker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Lineker over Azamat Gashimov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lineker at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Jussier Formiga (9-6) taking on Chris Cariaso (7-5). Formiga is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Formiga is rated at 1149 — 218 points above Cariaso's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Formiga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cariaso is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Formiga the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cariaso throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cariaso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Formiga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Cariaso over Jussier Formiga.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cariaso at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Lucas Martins (3-3) taking on Jeremy Larsen (0-2). Martins is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Martins is rated at 1095 — 384 points above Larsen's 711. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Larsen throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Larsen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Larsen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Larsen over Lucas Martins.** The model gives Larsen a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.