UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen lands on Saturday, April 27, 2013 in Newark, New Jersey, USA with 11 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Jones vs Chael SonnenLight Heavyweight | Jon Jones | Strong | 82% |
| Michael Bisping vs Alan BelcherMiddleweight | Michael Bisping | Lean | 56% |
| Roy Nelson vs Cheick KongoHeavyweight | Cheick Kongo | Toss-up | 52% |
| Phil Davis vs Vinny MagalhaesLight Heavyweight | Phil Davis | Strong | 75% |
| Jim Miller vs Pat HealyLightweight | Jim Miller | Toss-up | 51% |
| Rustam Khabilov vs Yancy MedeirosLightweight | Rustam Khabilov | Confident | 75% |
| Ovince Saint Preux vs Gian VillanteLight Heavyweight | Gian Villante | Lean | 59% |
| Sara McMann vs Sheila GaffWomen's Bantamweight | Sheila Gaff | Lean | 62% |
| Bryan Caraway vs Johnny BedfordBantamweight | Johnny Bedford | Lean | 57% |
| Cody McKenzie vs Leonard GarciaFeatherweight | Cody McKenzie | Confident | 74% |
| Steven Siler vs Kurt HolobaughFeatherweight | Steven Siler | Lean | 58% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Jon Jones vs Chael Sonnen
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Chael Sonnen (7-6). Jones is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 11-inch reach advantage.
Jones is rated at 2161 — 731 points above Sonnen's 1430. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.
The style clash matters here: Jones is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sonnen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sonnen the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sonnen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jon Jones over Chael Sonnen. The model is firm on this one: Jones at 82%.
Michael Bisping vs Alan Belcher
The Middleweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Alan Belcher (9-5).
Bisping is rated at 1522 — 229 points above Belcher's 1293. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Bisping brings a versatile approach, while Belcher is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Belcher the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Michael Bisping over Alan Belcher. The model gives Bisping a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Roy Nelson vs Cheick Kongo
The Heavyweight matchup features Roy Nelson (9-9) taking on Cheick Kongo (11-5-1). Kongo is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 9-inch reach advantage.
Kongo carries a modest Elo edge (1183 to 1129), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Nelson's all-rounder game against Kongo's striker approach. Nelson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kongo brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Kongo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Roy Nelson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kongo at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Phil Davis vs Vinny Magalhaes
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Phil Davis (9-2) taking on Vinny Magalhaes (1-3). Davis will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
Davis is rated at 1427 — 542 points above Magalhaes's 885. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Phil Davis over Vinny Magalhaes. The model is firm on this one: Davis at 75%.
Jim Miller vs Pat Healy
The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Pat Healy (0-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Healy.
Miller is rated at 1213 — 396 points above Healy's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Healy throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jim Miller over Pat Healy. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miller at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Rustam Khabilov vs Yancy Medeiros
The Lightweight matchup features Rustam Khabilov (9-3) taking on Yancy Medeiros (6-7). Medeiros is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Khabilov is rated at 1389 — 390 points above Medeiros's 999. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Khabilov brings a versatile approach, while Medeiros is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Medeiros the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Khabilov throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Khabilov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 33.3 more per 15 minutes. Medeiros has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rustam Khabilov over Yancy Medeiros. We're leaning Khabilov here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Ovince Saint Preux vs Gian Villante
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-12) taking on Gian Villante (7-10). Preux will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
Preux is rated at 917 — 212 points above Villante's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Preux's all-rounder game against Villante's striker approach. Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Villante brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Villante throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Villante is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Villante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gian Villante over Ovince Saint Preux. The model gives Villante a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Sara McMann vs Sheila Gaff
The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Sara McMann (6-6) taking on Sheila Gaff (0-1).
McMann is rated at 1158 — 368 points above Gaff's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gaff throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gaff is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gaff has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Sheila Gaff over Sara McMann. The model gives Gaff a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Bryan Caraway vs Johnny Bedford
The Bantamweight matchup features Bryan Caraway (6-3) taking on Johnny Bedford (2-2). Bedford is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Caraway is rated at 1191 — 350 points above Bedford's 841. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bedford throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bedford is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Bedford has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Johnny Bedford over Bryan Caraway. The model gives Bedford a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Cody McKenzie vs Leonard Garcia
The Featherweight matchup features Cody McKenzie (3-3) taking on Leonard Garcia (2-6). McKenzie is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
McKenzie is rated at 871 — 202 points above Garcia's 669. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: McKenzie looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Garcia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving McKenzie the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McKenzie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. McKenzie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cody McKenzie over Leonard Garcia. We're leaning McKenzie here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Steven Siler vs Kurt Holobaugh
The Featherweight matchup features Steven Siler (5-3) taking on Kurt Holobaugh (2-6).
Siler carries a modest Elo edge (888 to 833), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Siler looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Holobaugh is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Siler the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Siler throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Siler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Holobaugh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Steven Siler over Kurt Holobaugh. The model gives Siler a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.