UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
Saturday, February 16, 2013·London, England, United Kingdom·12 fights
Model: 10/11(91%)
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Main Card
BantamweightHIT
Renan Barao won by Submission (R4)
Barao 53%47% McDonald
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +37(favors Barao)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Barao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors McDonald)
FeatherweightHIT
Cub Swanson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Swanson 53%47% Poirier
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +182(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Poirier)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jimi Manuwa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Manuwa 62%38% Diabate
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +107(favors Manuwa)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Manuwa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Diabate)
WelterweightHIT
Gunnar Nelson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nelson 76%24% Santiago
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONG
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +438(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Nelson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Nelson)
Light HeavyweightHIT
James Te Huna won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Huna 53%47% Jimmo
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -21(favors Jimmo)
→Striking volume advantage: -12.2(favors Jimmo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.8(favors Huna)
Welterweight
Mills 34%66% Riddle
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +74(favors Mills)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Riddle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Mills)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Renee Forte won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Forte 58%42% Etim
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -356(favors Etim)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Etim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Etim)
LightweightHIT
Danny Castillo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Castillo 67%33% Sass
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -44(favors Sass)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Castillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Castillo)
FeatherweightHIT
Andy Ogle won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ogle 63%37% Grispi
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +265(favors Ogle)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Ogle)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Grispi)
MiddleweightHIT
Tom Watson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Watson 58%42% Nedkov
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -321(favors Nedkov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Watson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nedkov)
BantamweightMISS
Vaughan Lee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lee 42%58% Tezuka
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -21(favors Tezuka)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Lee)
FlyweightHIT
Phil Harris won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Harris 79%21% Gomez
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +64(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Gomez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Harris)