UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Saturday, October 26, 2024·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Model Record: 11/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightMISS
Ilia Topuria won by KO/TKO (R3)
Topuria 48%52% Holloway
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -181(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Topuria)
MiddleweightHIT
Khamzat Chimaev won by Submission (R1)
Chimaev 63%37% Whittaker
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +86(favors Chimaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Chimaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Chimaev)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Magomed Ankalaev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ankalaev 68%32% Rakic
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +412(favors Ankalaev)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Rakic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Ankalaev)
FeatherweightHIT
Lerone Murphy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Murphy 65%35% Ige
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +158(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Murphy)
MiddleweightHIT
Shara Magomedov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Magomedov 60%40% Petrosyan
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +219(favors Magomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Magomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Petrosyan)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ibo Aslan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aslan 63%37% Cerqueira
LEAN
→Elo gap: +57(favors Aslan)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.4(favors Aslan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Cerqueira)
WelterweightHIT
Geoff Neal won by KO/TKO (R1)
Neal 60%40% Anjos
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +78(favors Neal)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Neal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Anjos)
Catch WeightMISS
Mateusz Rebecki won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rebecki 37%63% Orolbai
LEAN
→Elo gap: -152(favors Orolbai)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Rebecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.7(favors Orolbai)
MiddleweightHIT
Abus Magomedov won by Submission (R3)
Magomedov 61%39% Ferreira
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -81(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Magomedov)
HeavyweightHIT
Kennedy Nzechukwu won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nzechukwu 78%22% Barnett
STRONG
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -33(favors Barnett)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Nzechukwu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Nzechukwu)
FeatherweightHIT
Farid Basharat won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Basharat 61%39% Hugo
LEAN
→Elo gap: +192(favors Basharat)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Hugo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.4(favors Basharat)
MiddleweightHIT
Ismail Naurdiev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Naurdiev 56%44% Silva
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +45(favors Naurdiev)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Naurdiev)
WelterweightHIT
Rinat Fakhretdinov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fakhretdinov 67%33% Leal
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +432(favors Fakhretdinov)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.2(favors Fakhretdinov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.4(favors Fakhretdinov)