UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Cain Velasquez (12-2) taking on Junior Dos Santos (15-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Santos.

Velasquez is rated at 1589 — 398 points above Santos's 1191. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Velasquez throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Velasquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cain Velasquez over Junior Dos Santos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Velasquez at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Joe Lauzon (14-12).

Miller is rated at 1213 — 178 points above Lauzon's 1036. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Miller is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Lauzon looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Lauzon the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Jim Miller.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lauzon at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Constantinos Philippou (6-3) taking on Tim Boetsch (12-11).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Philippou at 1179, Boetsch at 1174. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Philippou is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Boetsch looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Boetsch the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Philippou throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Boetsch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Boetsch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Boetsch over Constantinos Philippou.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Boetsch at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-6) taking on Alan Belcher (9-5).

Belcher is rated at 1293 — 232 points above Okami's 1061. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Okami brings a versatile approach, while Belcher is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Belcher the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belcher throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Okami is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Belcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alan Belcher over Yushin Okami.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Belcher at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Derek Brunson (14-6) taking on Chris Leben (12-9). Brunson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Brunson is rated at 1402 — 547 points above Leben's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Brunson's wrestler game against Leben's knockout artist approach. Brunson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Leben is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leben throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Leben is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Brunson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Derek Brunson over Chris Leben.** The model gives Brunson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Eddie Wineland (6-9) taking on Brad Pickett (5-8).

Wineland carries a modest Elo edge (865 to 834), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Wineland's striker game against Pickett's all-rounder approach. Wineland brings a versatile approach, while Pickett is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pickett throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Pickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Pickett over Eddie Wineland.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pickett at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Erik Perez (6-2) taking on Byron Bloodworth (0-1).

Perez is rated at 1303 — 460 points above Bloodworth's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Bloodworth is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erik Perez over Byron Bloodworth.** We're leaning Perez here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jamie Varner (3-5) taking on Melvin Guillard (12-8).

Guillard is rated at 1177 — 403 points above Varner's 774. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Varner's wrestler game against Guillard's striker approach. Varner looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Guillard brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Varner throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Varner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.1 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jamie Varner over Melvin Guillard.** We're leaning Varner here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Myles Jury (8-3) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15).

There's a real Elo separation here: Johnson at 1245 versus Jury at 1141. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Jury's all-rounder game against Johnson's striker approach. Jury is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Jury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Johnson over Myles Jury.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Todd Duffee (3-2) taking on Philip De Fries (2-2).

Duffee is rated at 1133 — 274 points above Fries's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duffee throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Fries is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Duffee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Philip De Fries over Todd Duffee.** We're leaning Fries here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Leonard Garcia (2-6).

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 1228 points above Garcia's 669. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Holloway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Garcia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Garcia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Max Holloway over Leonard Garcia.** The model is firm on this one: Holloway at 85%.

The Flyweight matchup features John Moraga (8-5) taking on Chris Cariaso (7-5). Moraga is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Moraga is rated at 1166 — 235 points above Cariaso's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Moraga rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Moraga looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cariaso is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Moraga the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moraga throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cariaso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Moraga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Cariaso over John Moraga.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cariaso at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.