UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz: Predictions & Analysis
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz lands on Saturday, December 8, 2012 in Seattle, Washington, USA with 11 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benson Henderson vs Nate DiazLightweight | Benson Henderson | Confident | 66% |
| Alexander Gustafsson vs Mauricio RuaLight Heavyweight | Alexander Gustafsson | Confident | 66% |
| Rory MacDonald vs BJ PennWelterweight | Rory MacDonald | Strong | 80% |
| Matt Brown vs Mike SwickWelterweight | Matt Brown | Lean | 65% |
| Yves Edwards vs Jeremy StephensLightweight | Jeremy Stephens | Lean | 56% |
| Raphael Assuncao vs Mike EastonBantamweight | Raphael Assuncao | Toss-up | 50% |
| Ramsey Nijem vs Joe ProctorLightweight | Ramsey Nijem | Confident | 75% |
| Daron Cruickshank vs Henry MartinezLightweight | Daron Cruickshank | Confident | 68% |
| Abel Trujillo vs Marcus LeVesseurLightweight | Marcus LeVesseur | Toss-up | 51% |
| Dennis Siver vs Nam PhanFeatherweight | Dennis Siver | Confident | 69% |
| Scott Jorgensen vs John AlbertBantamweight | Scott Jorgensen | Lean | 64% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Benson Henderson vs Nate Diaz
The Lightweight championship matchup features Benson Henderson (10-3) taking on Nate Diaz (15-11). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
Diaz carries a modest Elo edge (1557 to 1507), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Diaz is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Diaz the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Henderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Benson Henderson over Nate Diaz. We're leaning Henderson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Alexander Gustafsson vs Mauricio Rua
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Gustafsson (10-7) taking on Mauricio Rua (11-11-1). Gustafsson is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Gustafsson is rated at 1169 — 293 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Gustafsson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Rua is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gustafsson the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gustafsson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Gustafsson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Alexander Gustafsson over Mauricio Rua. We're leaning Gustafsson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Rory MacDonald vs BJ Penn
The Welterweight matchup features Rory MacDonald (9-3) taking on BJ Penn (12-12-2). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
MacDonald is rated at 1465 — 527 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: MacDonald looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving MacDonald the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. MacDonald throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. MacDonald has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rory MacDonald over BJ Penn. The model is firm on this one: MacDonald at 80%.
Matt Brown vs Mike Swick
The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on Mike Swick (10-4).
Brown is rated at 1201 — 156 points above Swick's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Brown looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Swick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brown the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Brown over Mike Swick. The model gives Brown a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.
Yves Edwards vs Jeremy Stephens
The Lightweight matchup features Yves Edwards (10-9) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18).
There's a real Elo separation here: Stephens at 941 versus Edwards at 818. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stephens is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Edwards the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Yves Edwards. The model gives Stephens a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Raphael Assuncao vs Mike Easton
The Bantamweight matchup features Raphael Assuncao (12-6) taking on Mike Easton (3-3). Easton will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
Assuncao is rated at 1099 — 165 points above Easton's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Assuncao's all-rounder game against Easton's striker approach. Assuncao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Easton brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Assuncao throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Assuncao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Raphael Assuncao over Mike Easton. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Assuncao at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Ramsey Nijem vs Joe Proctor
The Lightweight matchup features Ramsey Nijem (5-4) taking on Joe Proctor (4-3). Nijem will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Nijem at 944, Proctor at 947. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
Stylistically this is Nijem's wrestler game against Proctor's knockout artist approach. Nijem looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Proctor is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Proctor throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nijem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.3 more per 15 minutes. Nijem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ramsey Nijem over Joe Proctor. We're leaning Nijem here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Daron Cruickshank vs Henry Martinez
The Lightweight matchup features Daron Cruickshank (6-5) taking on Henry Martinez (1-1). Cruickshank will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Cruickshank at 879, Martinez at 899. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruickshank is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Daron Cruickshank over Henry Martinez. We're leaning Cruickshank here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Abel Trujillo vs Marcus LeVesseur
The Lightweight matchup features Abel Trujillo (6-3) taking on Marcus LeVesseur (1-1).
Trujillo is rated at 1031 — 197 points above LeVesseur's 833. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. LeVesseur throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. LeVesseur is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Trujillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Marcus LeVesseur over Abel Trujillo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward LeVesseur at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Dennis Siver vs Nam Phan
The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Siver (11-8) taking on Nam Phan (2-5).
Siver is rated at 1214 — 355 points above Phan's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Siver's all-rounder game against Phan's knockout artist approach. Siver is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Phan is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Phan throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Siver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dennis Siver over Nam Phan. We're leaning Siver here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Scott Jorgensen vs John Albert
The Bantamweight matchup features Scott Jorgensen (4-7) taking on John Albert (1-3). Albert is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jorgensen at 735, Albert at 724. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Albert throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jorgensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Jorgensen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Scott Jorgensen over John Albert. The model gives Jorgensen a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.