UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Benson Henderson (11-3) taking on Nate Diaz (16-11). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Henderson at 1610, Diaz at 1624. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Diaz is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Diaz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Henderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Benson Henderson over Nate Diaz. The model gives Henderson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Gustafsson (10-8) taking on Mauricio Rua (11-12-1). Gustafsson is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Gustafsson is rated at 1367 — 310 points above Rua's 1057. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gustafsson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Rua is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gustafsson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gustafsson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Gustafsson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Gustafsson over Mauricio Rua. The model gives Gustafsson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Rory MacDonald (9-4) taking on BJ Penn (12-13-2). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

MacDonald is rated at 1584 — 443 points above Penn's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: MacDonald looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving MacDonald the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. MacDonald throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. MacDonald has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rory MacDonald over BJ Penn. The model is firm on this one: MacDonald at 76%.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (17-13) taking on Mike Swick (10-5).

Brown carries a modest Elo edge (1256 to 1193), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Brown looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Swick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brown the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Brown over Mike Swick. The model gives Brown a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Yves Edwards (10-10) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-19).

Stephens is rated at 1112 — 199 points above Edwards's 913. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stephens is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Edwards the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Yves Edwards. The model gives Stephens a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raphael Assuncao (12-7) taking on Mike Easton (3-4). Easton will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Assuncao is rated at 1260 — 242 points above Easton's 1018. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Assuncao's all-rounder game against Easton's striker approach. Assuncao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Easton brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Assuncao throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Assuncao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raphael Assuncao over Mike Easton. The model gives Assuncao a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Ramsey Nijem (5-5) taking on Joe Proctor (4-4). Nijem will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Proctor carries a modest Elo edge (1044 to 990), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Nijem's wrestler game against Proctor's knockout artist approach. Nijem looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Proctor is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Proctor throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Nijem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.3 more per 15 minutes. Nijem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ramsey Nijem over Joe Proctor. The model is firm on this one: Nijem at 81%.

The Lightweight matchup features Daron Cruickshank (6-6) taking on Henry Martinez (1-2). Cruickshank will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cruickshank at 957 versus Martinez at 871. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruickshank is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daron Cruickshank over Henry Martinez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cruickshank at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Abel Trujillo (6-4) taking on Marcus LeVesseur (1-2).

Trujillo is rated at 1107 — 343 points above LeVesseur's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. LeVesseur throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. LeVesseur is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Trujillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcus LeVesseur over Abel Trujillo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward LeVesseur at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Siver (12-8) taking on Nam Phan (2-6).

Siver is rated at 1351 — 494 points above Phan's 857. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Siver's all-rounder game against Phan's knockout artist approach. Siver is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Phan is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phan throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Siver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Siver over Nam Phan. The model is firm on this one: Siver at 75%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Scott Jorgensen (4-8) taking on John Albert (1-4). Albert is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jorgensen at 744 versus Albert at 627. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Albert throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jorgensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Jorgensen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Scott Jorgensen over John Albert. The model gives Jorgensen a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.