UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Cung Le (2-1) taking on Rich Franklin (14-5). Franklin is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Le carries a modest Elo edge (1130 to 1094), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franklin throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Le is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Franklin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rich Franklin over Cung Le.** The model is firm on this one: Franklin at 75%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Thiago Silva (6-3) taking on Stanislav Nedkov (1-1). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 1362 — 481 points above Nedkov's 881. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nedkov throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Silva over Stanislav Nedkov.** We're leaning Silva here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-3) taking on Paulo Thiago (5-7). Kim is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Kim is rated at 1318 — 507 points above Thiago's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Kim's striker game against Thiago's wrestler approach. Kim brings a versatile approach, while Thiago looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Thiago has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over Paulo Thiago.** The model gives Kim a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Takanori Gomi (4-8) taking on Mac Danzig (5-7).

Danzig is rated at 920 — 188 points above Gomi's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gomi's striker game against Danzig's wrestler approach. Gomi brings a versatile approach, while Danzig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danzig throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Danzig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Gomi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mac Danzig over Takanori Gomi.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Danzig at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jon Tuck (4-4) taking on Zhang Tiequan (1-2). Tuck is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Tuck is rated at 1006 — 187 points above Tiequan's 819. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tiequan throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Tiequan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tuck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Tuck over Zhang Tiequan.** The model gives Tuck a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Takeya Mizugaki (8-5) taking on Jeff Hougland (1-1).

Mizugaki carries a modest Elo edge (995 to 917), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mizugaki throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mizugaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Mizugaki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Takeya Mizugaki over Jeff Hougland.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mizugaki at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Motonobu Tezuka (0-1).

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 401 points above Tezuka's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Tezuka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Caceres over Motonobu Tezuka.** The model gives Caceres a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features John Lineker (12-3) taking on Yasuhiro Urushitani (0-1).

Lineker is rated at 1455 — 633 points above Urushitani's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lineker throws significantly more leather — a 8.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Urushitani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Urushitani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Lineker over Yasuhiro Urushitani.** The model is firm on this one: Lineker at 76%.

The Middleweight matchup features Riki Fukuda (2-2) taking on Tom DeBlass (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Fukuda at 967 versus DeBlass at 824. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fukuda throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Fukuda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Fukuda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Riki Fukuda over Tom DeBlass.** The model gives Fukuda a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.