UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Saturday, October 19, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 7/11(64%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Anthony Hernandez won by KO/TKO (R5)
Hernandez 56%44% Pereira
Over/UnderOver 69%
Under 31%Over 69%
LEANMarket: 58% (-1.2% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -148(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Pereira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.6(favors Hernandez)
BantamweightMISS
Rob Font won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Font 22%78% Phillips
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 18% (+4.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +87(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Phillips)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Phillips)
FlyweightMISS
Charles Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 41%59% Sumudaerji
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +361(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Johnson)
BantamweightMISS
Cameron Smotherman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Smotherman 16%84% Hadley
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 18% (-1.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -96(favors Hadley)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Hadley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hadley)
FeatherweightHIT
Darren Elkins won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Elkins 66%34% Pineda
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+6.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +190(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Elkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Elkins)
FlyweightHIT
Asu Almabayev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Almabayev 79%21% Nicolau
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
STRONGMarket: 67% (+12.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +222(favors Almabayev)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Nicolau)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors Almabayev)
Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Jean Matsumoto won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Matsumoto 76%24% Katona
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
STRONGMarket: 66% (+10.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +221(favors Matsumoto)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Katona)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Matsumoto)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Joselyne Edwards won by Submission (R3)
Edwards 66%34% Vidal
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +125(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Edwards)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Elise Reed won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Reed 70%30% Penne
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+4.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +26(favors Reed)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Penne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Penne)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Melissa Martinez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Martinez 56%44% Ardelean
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 58% (-2.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -48(favors Ardelean)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Ardelean)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Ardelean)
HeavyweightMISS
Austen Lane won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lane 31%69% Despaigne
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENTMarket: 24% (+7.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -281(favors Despaigne)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Lane)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Lane)