UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Mauricio Rua (11-11-1) taking on Brandon Vera (8-6). Vera is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Vera carries a modest Elo edge (945 to 876), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rua throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Vera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mauricio Rua over Brandon Vera. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rua at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on Ryan Bader (14-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bader at 1619 versus Machida at 1493. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Machida's all-rounder game against Bader's striker approach. Machida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bader brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bader throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Bader over Lyoto Machida. The model gives Bader a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (14-12) taking on Jamie Varner (3-5).

Lauzon is rated at 1036 — 262 points above Varner's 774. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lauzon is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Varner looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Varner the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Varner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.6 more per 15 minutes. Lauzon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Jamie Varner. The model gives Lauzon a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Swick (10-4) taking on DaMarques Johnson (4-5).

Swick is rated at 1045 — 204 points above Johnson's 841. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Swick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Swick the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Swick throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Swick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Swick over DaMarques Johnson. The model gives Swick a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Nam Phan (2-5) taking on Cole Miller (10-8). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Miller carries a modest Elo edge (891 to 859), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Phan's striker game against Miller's wrestler approach. Phan brings a versatile approach, while Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phan throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Phan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nam Phan over Cole Miller. The model gives Phan a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Phil Davis (9-2) taking on Wagner Prado (0-1). Davis is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Davis is rated at 1427 — 556 points above Prado's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Prado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Davis over Wagner Prado. We're leaning Davis here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-5-1) taking on Josh Grispi (0-3). Grispi is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Yahya is rated at 1030 — 342 points above Grispi's 687. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yahya throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Grispi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Yahya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rani Yahya over Josh Grispi. The model gives Yahya a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Philip De Fries (2-2) taking on Oli Thompson (0-1). Fries is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Fries carries a modest Elo edge (858 to 795), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Fries is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Thompson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Philip De Fries over Oli Thompson. The model is firm on this one: Fries at 76%.

The Featherweight matchup features Manvel Gamburyan (6-7) taking on Michihiro Omigawa (1-5).

Gamburyan is rated at 972 — 219 points above Omigawa's 753. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Omigawa throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamburyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Omigawa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manvel Gamburyan over Michihiro Omigawa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gamburyan at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features John Moraga (8-5) taking on Ulysses Gomez (0-1).

Moraga is rated at 1166 — 370 points above Gomez's 797. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Moraga rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gomez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gomez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Moraga over Ulysses Gomez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moraga at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.