UFC 149: Faber vs Barao: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Renan Barao (9-7) taking on Urijah Faber (11-6). Barao will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Faber is rated at 1297 — 476 points above Barao's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Barao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Faber the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barao throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Barao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Faber has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Renan Barao over Urijah Faber.** The model is firm on this one: Barao at 78%.

The Middleweight matchup features Tim Boetsch (12-11) taking on Hector Lombard (3-7). Boetsch is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Boetsch is rated at 1174 — 209 points above Lombard's 964. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Boetsch looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lombard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Boetsch the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boetsch throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Boetsch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Lombard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Boetsch over Hector Lombard.** We're leaning Boetsch here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-5-1) taking on Shawn Jordan (6-3). Kongo is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kongo at 1183, Jordan at 1164. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Jordan has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jordan throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Kongo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Shawn Jordan.** We're leaning Kongo here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features James Head (2-2) taking on Brian Ebersole (5-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ebersole at 1065 versus Head at 922. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Head throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ebersole is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Ebersole has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brian Ebersole over James Head.** The model is firm on this one: Ebersole at 76%.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Clements (2-1) taking on Matthew Riddle (7-3). Riddle is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Riddle at 1158 versus Clements at 1031. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clements throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Riddle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Riddle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matthew Riddle over Chris Clements.** We're leaning Riddle here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Nick Ring (3-2) taking on Court McGee (11-12).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ring at 1015, McGee at 1037. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Ring is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McGee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving McGee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Court McGee over Nick Ring.** The model gives McGee a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Roland Delorme (3-2) taking on Francisco Rivera (4-5).

Rivera carries a modest Elo edge (972 to 900), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Delorme looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rivera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Delorme the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Delorme throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Delorme is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francisco Rivera over Roland Delorme.** The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Jimmo (3-3) taking on Anthony Perosh (5-6). Perosh is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jimmo at 974 versus Perosh at 872. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Jimmo's striker game against Perosh's wrestler approach. Jimmo brings a versatile approach, while Perosh looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perosh throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Perosh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Jimmo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Perosh over Ryan Jimmo.** The model gives Perosh a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Bryan Caraway (6-3) taking on Mitch Gagnon (4-3). Caraway is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Caraway is rated at 1191 — 237 points above Gagnon's 955. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caraway throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Caraway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Gagnon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bryan Caraway over Mitch Gagnon.** We're leaning Caraway here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Antonio Carvalho (2-1) taking on Daniel Pineda (5-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Carvalho at 1084 versus Pineda at 979. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pineda throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pineda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Carvalho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Pineda over Antonio Carvalho.** The model gives Pineda a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Anton Kuivanen (1-1) taking on Mitch Clarke (2-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kuivanen at 905 versus Clarke at 803. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kuivanen throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Clarke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kuivanen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anton Kuivanen over Mitch Clarke.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kuivanen at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.