UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on Chael Sonnen (7-6). Silva will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sonnen is rated at 1430 — 276 points above Silva's 1154. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Silva's knockout artist game against Sonnen's wrestler approach. Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sonnen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sonnen throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sonnen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Sonnen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anderson Silva over Chael Sonnen.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Forrest Griffin (9-5) taking on Tito Ortiz (15-10-1). Griffin will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Griffin is rated at 1329 — 271 points above Ortiz's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Forrest Griffin over Tito Ortiz.** We're leaning Griffin here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Cung Le (2-1) taking on Patrick Cote (10-10). Cote is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cote at 1221 versus Le at 1130. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Le throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Cote is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Le has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cung Le over Patrick Cote.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Le at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Dong Hyun Kim (13-3). Kim will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Maia carries a modest Elo edge (1371 to 1318), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Kim has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maia throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over Demian Maia.** The model gives Kim a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Chad Mendes (9-4) taking on Cody McKenzie (3-3). McKenzie is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Mendes is rated at 1377 — 506 points above McKenzie's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Mendes's striker game against McKenzie's wrestler approach. Mendes brings a versatile approach, while McKenzie looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mendes throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Mendes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chad Mendes over Cody McKenzie.** The model gives Mendes a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mike Easton (3-3) taking on Ivan Menjivar (4-4). Easton will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Easton carries a modest Elo edge (934 to 895), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Easton's striker game against Menjivar's wrestler approach. Easton brings a versatile approach, while Menjivar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Easton throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Easton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Easton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Easton over Ivan Menjivar.** The model gives Easton a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Melvin Guillard (12-8) taking on Fabricio Camoes (1-3-1).

Guillard is rated at 1177 — 331 points above Camoes's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Guillard's striker game against Camoes's wrestler approach. Guillard brings a versatile approach, while Camoes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guillard throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Camoes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Melvin Guillard over Fabricio Camoes.** The model gives Guillard a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (12-0) taking on Gleison Tibau (16-11).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 2060 — 1041 points above Tibau's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Tibau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Khabib Nurmagomedov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tibau at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Constantinos Philippou (6-3) taking on Riki Fukuda (2-2).

Philippou is rated at 1179 — 212 points above Fukuda's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fukuda throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Fukuda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Fukuda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Constantinos Philippou over Riki Fukuda.** The model gives Philippou a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Shane Roller (2-3) taking on John Alessio (0-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Roller at 914 versus Alessio at 793. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roller throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Roller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Roller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shane Roller over John Alessio.** The model gives Roller a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafaello Oliveira (2-5) taking on Yoislandy Izquierdo (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Oliveira at 818, Izquierdo at 794. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Izquierdo throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafaello Oliveira over Yoislandy Izquierdo.** The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.