UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Chan Sung Jung (7-4) taking on Dustin Poirier (22-8).

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 153 points above Jung's 1528. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jung's all-rounder game against Poirier's knockout artist approach. Jung is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Jung has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Chan Sung Jung.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Poirier at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Amir Sadollah (6-4) taking on Jorge Lopez (0-1).

Sadollah carries a modest Elo edge (946 to 867), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sadollah throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lopez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Sadollah has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Amir Sadollah over Jorge Lopez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sadollah at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cerrone at 1054 versus Stephens at 941. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Cerrone's knockout artist game against Stephens's wrestler approach. Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Stephens looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Donald Cerrone.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stephens at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Yves Jabouin (5-4) taking on Jeff Hougland (1-1).

Hougland carries a modest Elo edge (917 to 845), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hougland throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jabouin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Jabouin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeff Hougland over Yves Jabouin.** The model gives Hougland a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Igor Pokrajac (4-7) taking on Fabio Maldonado (5-5).

Maldonado is rated at 1043 — 279 points above Pokrajac's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maldonado throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pokrajac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Maldonado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Igor Pokrajac over Fabio Maldonado.** The model gives Pokrajac a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Tom Lawlor (6-4) taking on Jason MacDonald (6-7). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Lawlor is rated at 1205 — 374 points above MacDonald's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lawlor looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while MacDonald is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Lawlor the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawlor throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawlor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Lawlor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tom Lawlor over Jason MacDonald.** The model is firm on this one: Lawlor at 80%.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Tavares (16-10) taking on Dongi Yang (1-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Tavares.

There's a real Elo separation here: Yang at 1066 versus Tavares at 925. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yang throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Yang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Yang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dongi Yang over Brad Tavares.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yang at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Cody McKenzie (3-3) taking on Marcus LeVesseur (1-1). McKenzie is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

McKenzie carries a modest Elo edge (871 to 833), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKenzie throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McKenzie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. LeVesseur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody McKenzie over Marcus LeVesseur.** The model gives McKenzie a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features TJ Grant (7-3) taking on Carlo Prater (1-1).

Grant is rated at 1640 — 770 points above Prater's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Grant rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: TJ Grant over Carlo Prater.** The model is firm on this one: Grant at 79%.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Kamal Shalorus (0-2).

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 420 points above Shalorus's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Kamal Shalorus.** The model is firm on this one: Anjos at 86%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Johnny Eduardo (3-4) taking on Jeff Curran (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Eduardo at 873 versus Curran at 792. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eduardo throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Curran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Curran has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Johnny Eduardo over Jeff Curran.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Eduardo at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Francisco Rivera (4-5) taking on Alex Soto (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rivera at 972 versus Soto at 825. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soto throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Soto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Soto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Soto over Francisco Rivera.** The model gives Soto a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.