UFC 145: Jones vs Evans: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Rashad Evans (14-7-1). Jones is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 1040 points above Evans's 1121. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Jones's wrestler game against Evans's striker approach. Jones looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Evans brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Jones over Rashad Evans.** The model is firm on this one: Jones at 80%.

The Welterweight matchup features Rory MacDonald (9-3) taking on Che Mills (2-1).

MacDonald is rated at 1465 — 310 points above Mills's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mills throws significantly more leather — a 13.8 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Mills has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rory MacDonald over Che Mills.** The model gives MacDonald a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ben Rothwell (9-7) taking on Brendan Schaub (6-4).

Schaub carries a modest Elo edge (1154 to 1080), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Rothwell's all-rounder game against Schaub's striker approach. Rothwell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Schaub brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schaub throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rothwell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Schaub has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brendan Schaub over Ben Rothwell.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Schaub at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Michael McDonald (6-2) taking on Miguel Torres (2-1). Torres will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

McDonald is rated at 1193 — 184 points above Torres's 1009. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torres throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. McDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Torres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael McDonald over Miguel Torres.** We're leaning McDonald here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Eddie Yagin (0-1) taking on Mark Hominick (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Yagin at 984 versus Hominick at 842. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hominick throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hominick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Hominick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Hominick over Eddie Yagin.** The model is firm on this one: Hominick at 77%.

The Lightweight matchup features Mark Bocek (7-5) taking on John Alessio (0-4). Bocek will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bocek is rated at 1230 — 437 points above Alessio's 793. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bocek throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bocek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Alessio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Bocek over John Alessio.** We're leaning Bocek here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Travis Browne (9-6-1) taking on Chad Griggs (0-1). Browne is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Browne is rated at 1131 — 247 points above Griggs's 884. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Browne throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Browne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Griggs has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Travis Browne over Chad Griggs.** We're leaning Browne here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Brown (16-13) taking on Stephen Thompson (12-8-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Thompson at 1329 versus Brown at 1201. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Brown's submission artist game against Thompson's striker approach. Brown is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Thompson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Thompson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stephen Thompson over Matt Brown.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Thompson at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Njokuani (3-4) taking on John Makdessi (11-8). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Njokuani at 972, Makdessi at 989. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Njokuani's all-rounder game against Makdessi's striker approach. Njokuani is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Makdessi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Njokuani throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Njokuani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Njokuani over John Makdessi.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Njokuani at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Mac Danzig (5-7) taking on Efrain Escudero (5-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Danzig at 920, Escudero at 941. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Danzig's wrestler game against Escudero's knockout artist approach. Danzig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Escudero is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danzig throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Danzig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Escudero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mac Danzig over Efrain Escudero.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Danzig at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Clements (2-1) taking on Keith Wisniewski (0-3).

Clements is rated at 1031 — 279 points above Wisniewski's 753. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wisniewski throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Wisniewski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Clements has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Keith Wisniewski over Chris Clements.** The model gives Wisniewski a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Marcus Brimage (4-3) taking on Maximo Blanco (4-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Blanco.

Blanco is rated at 1013 — 207 points above Brimage's 806. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Brimage's striker game against Blanco's all-rounder approach. Brimage brings a versatile approach, while Blanco is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brimage throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brimage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Blanco has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcus Brimage over Maximo Blanco.** The model gives Brimage a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.