UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger: Predictions & Analysis
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger lands on Wednesday, February 15, 2012 in Omaha, Nebraska, USA with 9 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Ellenberger vs Diego SanchezWelterweight | Jake Ellenberger | Confident | 72% |
| Stefan Struve vs Dave HermanHeavyweight | Stefan Struve | Confident | 68% |
| Ronny Markes vs Aaron SimpsonMiddleweight | Ronny Markes | Confident | 71% |
| Stipe Miocic vs Philip De FriesHeavyweight | Stipe Miocic | Lean | 55% |
| TJ Dillashaw vs Walel WatsonBantamweight | Walel Watson | Lean | 56% |
| Ivan Menjivar vs John AlbertBantamweight | John Albert | Lean | 65% |
| Jonathan Brookins vs Vagner RochaFeatherweight | Jonathan Brookins | Lean | 62% |
| Justin Salas vs Anton KuivanenLightweight | Anton Kuivanen | Lean | 62% |
| Tim Means vs Bernardo MagalhaesLightweight | Tim Means | Lean | 57% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Jake Ellenberger vs Diego Sanchez
The Welterweight matchup features Jake Ellenberger (10-10) taking on Diego Sanchez (19-12).
Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 293 points above Ellenberger's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Ellenberger's striker game against Sanchez's all-rounder approach. Ellenberger brings a versatile approach, while Sanchez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ellenberger throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellenberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Ellenberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jake Ellenberger over Diego Sanchez. We're leaning Ellenberger here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman
The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-10) taking on Dave Herman (1-3). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Struve at 878, Herman at 849. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Herman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Stefan Struve over Dave Herman. We're leaning Struve here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Ronny Markes vs Aaron Simpson
The Middleweight matchup features Ronny Markes (3-1) taking on Aaron Simpson (7-3).
Simpson is rated at 1097 — 179 points above Markes's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Simpson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Markes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Markes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ronny Markes over Aaron Simpson. We're leaning Markes here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Stipe Miocic vs Philip De Fries
The Heavyweight matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-4) taking on Philip De Fries (2-2).
Miocic is rated at 1847 — 988 points above Fries's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Philip De Fries. The model gives Miocic a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.
TJ Dillashaw vs Walel Watson
The Bantamweight matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-4) taking on Walel Watson (1-2). Watson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 8-inch reach advantage.
Dillashaw is rated at 1581 — 774 points above Watson's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Watson throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Watson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dillashaw has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Walel Watson over TJ Dillashaw. The model gives Watson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Ivan Menjivar vs John Albert
The Bantamweight matchup features Ivan Menjivar (4-4) taking on John Albert (1-3). Albert is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Menjivar is rated at 895 — 171 points above Albert's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Albert throws significantly more leather — a 15.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Albert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Albert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: John Albert over Ivan Menjivar. The model gives Albert a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.
Jonathan Brookins vs Vagner Rocha
The Featherweight matchup features Jonathan Brookins (2-2) taking on Vagner Rocha (1-2).
There's a real Elo separation here: Brookins at 984 versus Rocha at 868. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rocha throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brookins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Brookins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jonathan Brookins over Vagner Rocha. The model gives Brookins a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Justin Salas vs Anton Kuivanen
The Lightweight matchup features Justin Salas (3-3) taking on Anton Kuivanen (1-1).
Kuivanen carries a modest Elo edge (905 to 843), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kuivanen throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kuivanen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kuivanen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Anton Kuivanen over Justin Salas. The model gives Kuivanen a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Tim Means vs Bernardo Magalhaes
The Lightweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on Bernardo Magalhaes (0-1).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Means at 872, Magalhaes at 850. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Magalhaes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Magalhaes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Magalhaes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tim Means over Bernardo Magalhaes. The model gives Means a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.