UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
Saturday, February 4, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✓
Carlos Condit won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Condit 72%28% Diaz
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +172(favors Condit)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Condit)
Heavyweight✓
Fabricio Werdum won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Werdum 61%39% Nelson
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -125(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Werdum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Nelson)
Welterweight✓
Josh Koscheck won by Decision - Split (R3)
Koscheck 58%42% Pierce
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +317(favors Koscheck)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Pierce)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Pierce)
Bantamweight✓
Renan Barao won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barao 62%38% Jorgensen
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +3(favors Barao)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Barao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jorgensen)
Middleweight✓
Ed Herman won by Submission (R2)
Herman 52%48% Starks
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +240(favors Herman)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Herman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Herman)
Featherweight✓
Dustin Poirier won by Submission (R1)
Poirier 61%39% Holloway
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +276(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.7(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Poirier)
Bantamweight✗
Edwin Figueroa won by Decision - Split (R3)
Figueroa 48%52% Caceres
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +125(favors Figueroa)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Caceres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Caceres)
Welterweight✗
Matt Brown won by KO/TKO (R2)
Brown 47%53% Cope
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +35(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Cope)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Brown)
Welterweight✓
Matthew Riddle won by Decision - Split (R3)
Riddle 68%32% Martinez
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -17(favors Martinez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Riddle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Riddle)
Middleweight✓
Rafael Natal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Natal 56%44% Kuiper
LEAN
→Elo gap: +48(favors Natal)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Natal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Natal)
Welterweight✗
Stephen Thompson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Thompson 48%52% Stittgen
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Stittgen)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Stittgen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Stittgen)