UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Phil Davis (9-2). Davis is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Davis is rated at 1427 — 306 points above Evans's 1121. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Evans's striker game against Davis's wrestler approach. Evans brings a versatile approach, while Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Phil Davis over Rashad Evans.** The model gives Davis a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chael Sonnen (7-6) taking on Michael Bisping (20-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bisping at 1522 versus Sonnen at 1430. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Sonnen's wrestler game against Bisping's striker approach. Sonnen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bisping brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sonnen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chael Sonnen over Michael Bisping.** The model gives Sonnen a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Weidman (12-7) taking on Demian Maia (22-10). Weidman will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Maia is rated at 1371 — 311 points above Weidman's 1060. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weidman throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Weidman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Weidman over Demian Maia.** We're leaning Weidman here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Evan Dunham (11-8-1) taking on Nik Lentz (14-8-1). Dunham is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lentz at 1159 versus Dunham at 1019. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Dunham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Evan Dunham over Nik Lentz.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dunham at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mike Russow (4-1) taking on Jon Olav Einemo (0-1).

Russow is rated at 1027 — 164 points above Einemo's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Einemo throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Russow is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Russow has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mike Russow over Jon Olav Einemo.** The model is firm on this one: Russow at 89%.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (14-10) taking on George Roop (5-7). Roop is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Swanson is rated at 1255 — 375 points above Roop's 881. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roop throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Swanson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Swanson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cub Swanson over George Roop.** The model gives Swanson a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Eric Wisely (0-1).

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 1039 points above Wisely's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Wisely has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Eric Wisely.** The model is firm on this one: Oliveira at 77%.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (15-15) taking on Shane Roller (2-3).

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 331 points above Roller's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Roller's wrestler approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Roller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Roller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Roller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Johnson over Shane Roller.** We're leaning Johnson here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Lavar Johnson (2-1) taking on Joey Beltran (3-5). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1026 — 211 points above Beltran's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beltran throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Beltran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joey Beltran over Lavar Johnson.** The model gives Beltran a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Camozzi (9-9) taking on Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1).

Jacoby is rated at 1374 — 388 points above Camozzi's 986. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Camozzi's all-rounder game against Jacoby's striker approach. Camozzi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jacoby brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jacoby is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Jacoby over Chris Camozzi.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jacoby at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.