UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller: Predictions & Analysis
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller lands on Friday, January 20, 2012 in Nashville, Tennessee, USA with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller vs Melvin GuillardLightweight | Jim Miller | Lean | 58% |
| Josh Neer vs Duane LudwigWelterweight | Josh Neer | Lean | 57% |
| Mike Easton vs Jared PapazianBantamweight | Mike Easton | Lean | 58% |
| Pat Barry vs Christian MorecraftHeavyweight | Christian Morecraft | Lean | 58% |
| Jorge Rivera vs Eric SchaferMiddleweight | Jorge Rivera | Lean | 63% |
| Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Kamal ShalorusLightweight | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Lean | 61% |
| Charlie Brenneman vs Daniel RobertsWelterweight | Charlie Brenneman | Confident | 68% |
| Fabricio Camoes vs Tommy HaydenLightweight | Fabricio Camoes | Toss-up | 54% |
| Daniel Pineda vs Pat SchillingFeatherweight | Pat Schilling | Lean | 57% |
| Nick Denis vs Joseph SandovalBantamweight | Nick Denis | Lean | 57% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Jim Miller vs Melvin Guillard
The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Melvin Guillard (12-8).
Miller carries a modest Elo edge (1213 to 1177), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Miller's submission artist game against Guillard's striker approach. Miller is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Guillard brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Guillard throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jim Miller over Melvin Guillard. The model gives Miller a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Josh Neer vs Duane Ludwig
The Welterweight matchup features Josh Neer (6-8) taking on Duane Ludwig (4-4).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Neer at 872, Ludwig at 853. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
Stylistically this is Neer's wrestler game against Ludwig's striker approach. Neer looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ludwig brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ludwig throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Neer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Neer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Josh Neer over Duane Ludwig. The model gives Neer a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Mike Easton vs Jared Papazian
The Bantamweight matchup features Mike Easton (3-3) taking on Jared Papazian (0-2). Easton will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Easton is rated at 934 — 176 points above Papazian's 758. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Easton throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Papazian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Papazian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mike Easton over Jared Papazian. The model gives Easton a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Pat Barry vs Christian Morecraft
The Heavyweight matchup features Pat Barry (5-6) taking on Christian Morecraft (1-2). Morecraft is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.
Barry carries a modest Elo edge (910 to 858), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Morecraft throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Morecraft is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Barry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Christian Morecraft over Pat Barry. The model gives Morecraft a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Jorge Rivera vs Eric Schafer
The Middleweight matchup features Jorge Rivera (7-7) taking on Eric Schafer (3-5). Schafer is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Rivera is rated at 1174 — 297 points above Schafer's 877. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Rivera's striker game against Schafer's wrestler approach. Rivera brings a versatile approach, while Schafer looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jorge Rivera over Eric Schafer. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Kamal Shalorus
The Lightweight matchup features Khabib Nurmagomedov (12-0) taking on Kamal Shalorus (0-2). Nurmagomedov is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Nurmagomedov is rated at 2060 — 1197 points above Shalorus's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Nurmagomedov rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Shalorus throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Shalorus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov over Kamal Shalorus. The model gives Nurmagomedov a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Charlie Brenneman vs Daniel Roberts
The Welterweight matchup features Charlie Brenneman (4-6) taking on Daniel Roberts (3-3). Roberts will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
Roberts is rated at 974 — 256 points above Brenneman's 717. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Brenneman's striker game against Roberts's wrestler approach. Brenneman brings a versatile approach, while Roberts looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Brenneman throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brenneman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Charlie Brenneman over Daniel Roberts. We're leaning Brenneman here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Fabricio Camoes vs Tommy Hayden
The Lightweight matchup features Fabricio Camoes (1-3-1) taking on Tommy Hayden (0-1).
Camoes carries a modest Elo edge (846 to 811), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Camoes throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Camoes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Hayden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Fabricio Camoes over Tommy Hayden. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Camoes at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Daniel Pineda vs Pat Schilling
The Featherweight matchup features Daniel Pineda (5-7) taking on Pat Schilling (0-1).
Pineda is rated at 979 — 157 points above Schilling's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Schilling throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Schilling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Schilling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Pat Schilling over Daniel Pineda. The model gives Schilling a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Nick Denis vs Joseph Sandoval
The Bantamweight matchup features Nick Denis (1-0) taking on Joseph Sandoval (0-1).
Denis is rated at 981 — 191 points above Sandoval's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sandoval throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandoval is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Denis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nick Denis over Joseph Sandoval. The model gives Denis a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.