The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Jason Miller (0-2).

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 671 points above Miller's 851. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Bisping over Jason Miller. The model is firm on this one: Bisping at 84%.

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Brandao (6-3) taking on Dennis Bermudez (9-7).

Brandao carries a modest Elo edge (1131 to 1068), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Brandao is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Bermudez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Bermudez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bermudez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Diego Brandao. The model gives Bermudez a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Dodson (10-6) taking on TJ Dillashaw (13-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Dillashaw.

Dillashaw is rated at 1581 — 325 points above Dodson's 1256. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dodson's striker game against Dillashaw's all-rounder approach. Dodson brings a versatile approach, while Dillashaw is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dillashaw is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dillashaw has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over John Dodson. The model gives Dillashaw a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-8) taking on Yves Edwards (10-9). Ferguson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Ferguson is rated at 1065 — 248 points above Edwards's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ferguson's all-rounder game against Edwards's knockout artist approach. Ferguson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Edwards is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferguson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Yves Edwards. We're leaning Ferguson here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Johnny Bedford (2-2) taking on Louis Gaudinot (1-2). Bedford is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Gaudinot carries a modest Elo edge (897 to 841), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaudinot throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gaudinot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gaudinot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Bedford over Louis Gaudinot. The model gives Bedford a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Marcus Brimage (4-3) taking on Stephen Bass (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bass at 915 versus Brimage at 806. That 109-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bass throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bass is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bass has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephen Bass over Marcus Brimage. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bass at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Albert (1-3) taking on Dustin Pague (1-4). Pague will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pague carries a modest Elo edge (755 to 724), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pague throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pague is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pague has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Pague over John Albert. The model gives Pague a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Roland Delorme (3-2) taking on Josh Ferguson (0-1).

Delorme carries a modest Elo edge (900 to 859), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferguson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Ferguson over Roland Delorme. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ferguson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Steven Siler (5-3) taking on Josh Clopton (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Siler at 888, Clopton at 872. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clopton throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Clopton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Clopton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steven Siler over Josh Clopton. The model gives Siler a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Bryan Caraway (6-3) taking on Dustin Neace (0-0).

Caraway is rated at 1191 — 302 points above Neace's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neace throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Neace is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Neace has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Neace over Bryan Caraway. The model gives Neace a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.