UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Dan Henderson (9-8) taking on Mauricio Rua (11-11-1). Rua is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Henderson is rated at 1404 — 528 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Henderson's all-rounder game against Rua's striker approach. Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rua brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rua throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Rua has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mauricio Rua over Dan Henderson.** The model gives Rua a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Wanderlei Silva (4-7) taking on Cung Le (2-1). Silva is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 1282 — 152 points above Le's 1130. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Le has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wanderlei Silva over Cung Le.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Urijah Faber (11-6) taking on Brian Bowles (2-1). Bowles will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Faber is rated at 1297 — 440 points above Bowles's 857. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bowles throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bowles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Bowles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brian Bowles over Urijah Faber.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bowles at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Martin Kampmann (11-5) taking on Rick Story (12-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Kampmann.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kampmann at 1358, Story at 1358. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Story has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Story throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Story is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Kampmann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rick Story over Martin Kampmann.** We're leaning Story here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Stephan Bonnar (8-6) taking on Kyle Kingsbury (4-4).

Bonnar is rated at 1278 — 443 points above Kingsbury's 835. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Bonnar's wrestler game against Kingsbury's striker approach. Bonnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kingsbury brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kingsbury throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kingsbury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Kingsbury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyle Kingsbury over Stephan Bonnar.** The model gives Kingsbury a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Jason Brilz (3-3). Bader is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Bader is rated at 1619 — 674 points above Brilz's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bader's striker game against Brilz's wrestler approach. Bader brings a versatile approach, while Brilz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brilz throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Bader over Jason Brilz.** The model gives Bader a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Michael McDonald (6-2) taking on Alex Soto (0-1).

McDonald is rated at 1193 — 368 points above Soto's 825. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McDonald throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. McDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Soto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael McDonald over Alex Soto.** The model is firm on this one: McDonald at 82%.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Weidman (12-7) taking on Tom Lawlor (6-4). Weidman is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lawlor at 1205 versus Weidman at 1060. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawlor throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Weidman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Weidman over Tom Lawlor.** We're leaning Weidman here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14).

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 263 points above Tibau's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Rafael Dos Anjos.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tibau at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Miguel Torres (2-1) taking on Nick Pace (1-1). Torres is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Torres carries a modest Elo edge (1009 to 930), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torres throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pace is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Torres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Miguel Torres over Nick Pace.** The model gives Torres a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Seth Baczynski (5-5) taking on Matt Brown (16-13). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Baczynski.

Brown is rated at 1201 — 404 points above Baczynski's 796. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Baczynski's all-rounder game against Brown's knockout artist approach. Baczynski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brown is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baczynski throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Brown over Seth Baczynski.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brown at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Danny Castillo (7-6) taking on Shamar Bailey (1-1). Bailey will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Castillo carries a modest Elo edge (951 to 897), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Castillo throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Bailey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Danny Castillo over Shamar Bailey.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Castillo at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.