UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos
Saturday, November 12, 2011·Anaheim, California, USA·10 fights
Model: 9/9(100%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Junior Dos Santos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Santos 55%45% Velasquez
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -107(favors Velasquez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.0(favors Velasquez)
LightweightHIT
Benson Henderson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Henderson 67%33% Guida
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -19(favors Guida)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Henderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Henderson)
FeatherweightHIT
Dustin Poirier won by Submission (R2)
Poirier 76%24% Garza
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONG
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -64(favors Garza)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Garza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Poirier)
FeatherweightHIT
Ricardo Lamas won by Submission (R2)
Lamas 62%38% Swanson
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +66(favors Lamas)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Lamas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Lamas)
WelterweightHIT
DaMarques Johnson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Johnson 52%48% Harvison
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +133(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Harvison)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Johnson)
BantamweightHIT
Darren Uyenoyama won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Uyenoyama 54%46% Yamamoto
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +128(favors Uyenoyama)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Yamamoto)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Yamamoto)
Prelims
Featherweight
Semerzier 48%52% Peralta
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -87(favors Peralta)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Peralta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +12.6(favors Semerzier)
BantamweightHIT
Alex Caceres won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Caceres 54%46% Escovedo
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -5(favors Escovedo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Escovedo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Escovedo)
WelterweightHIT
Mike Pierce won by Decision - Split (R3)
Pierce 70%30% Bradley
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +444(favors Pierce)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Pierce)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Pierce)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Aaron Rosa won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Rosa 79%21% Lucas
Over/UnderUnder 64%
Under 64%Over 36%
STRONG
→Elo gap: -216(favors Lucas)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.4(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lucas)