UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Nick Diaz (7-6) taking on BJ Penn (12-12-2). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Diaz is rated at 1185 — 247 points above Penn's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Diaz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Diaz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Penn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: BJ Penn over Nick Diaz.** The model gives Penn a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-5-1) taking on Matt Mitrione (9-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kongo at 1183, Mitrione at 1200. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Kongo brings a versatile approach, while Mitrione is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Mitrione the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitrione throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Mitrione has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Matt Mitrione.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kongo at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Roy Nelson (9-9) taking on Mirko Filipovic (4-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Nelson at 1129, Filipovic at 1145. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Nelson brings a versatile approach, while Filipovic is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Filipovic the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nelson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Filipovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roy Nelson over Mirko Filipovic.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nelson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Scott Jorgensen (4-7) taking on Jeff Curran (0-2). Curran will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Curran carries a modest Elo edge (792 to 735), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jorgensen throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jorgensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Jorgensen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Scott Jorgensen over Jeff Curran.** The model gives Jorgensen a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Hatsu Hioki (3-4) taking on George Roop (5-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hioki at 875, Roop at 881. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Hioki's all-rounder game against Roop's striker approach. Hioki is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Roop brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roop throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Roop is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Hioki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: George Roop over Hatsu Hioki.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Roop at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Dennis Siver (11-8). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Siver is rated at 1214 — 160 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Dennis Siver.** The model gives Cerrone a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Bart Palaszewski (1-2) taking on Tyson Griffin (8-5). Palaszewski is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Griffin carries a modest Elo edge (925 to 863), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Palaszewski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tyson Griffin over Bart Palaszewski.** The model gives Griffin a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Brandon Vera (8-6) taking on Eliot Marshall (3-2).

Vera carries a modest Elo edge (945 to 889), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Vera's knockout artist game against Marshall's all-rounder approach. Vera is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Marshall is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Marshall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eliot Marshall over Brandon Vera.** The model gives Marshall a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Ramsey Nijem (5-4) taking on Danny Downes (0-1). Nijem will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nijem carries a modest Elo edge (944 to 864), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nijem throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Downes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nijem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ramsey Nijem over Danny Downes.** We're leaning Nijem here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Francis Carmont (6-2) taking on Chris Camozzi (9-9). Carmont will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Carmont is rated at 1167 — 181 points above Camozzi's 986. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Camozzi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Carmont has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Camozzi over Francis Carmont.** The model gives Camozzi a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Clifford Starks (1-1) taking on Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Jacoby.

Jacoby is rated at 1374 — 476 points above Starks's 898. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jacoby is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Jacoby over Clifford Starks.** The model gives Jacoby a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.