UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Dominick Cruz (7-2) taking on Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1). Cruz is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 157 points above Cruz's 1446. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson has won 13 straight.

Stylistically this is Cruz's striker game against Johnson's wrestler approach. Cruz brings a versatile approach, while Johnson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cruz throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Cruz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over Dominick Cruz.** The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-10) taking on Pat Barry (5-6). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Barry carries a modest Elo edge (910 to 878), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Struve's submission artist game against Barry's striker approach. Struve is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Barry brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Struve throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Struve is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Barry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stefan Struve over Pat Barry.** We're leaning Struve here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-5) taking on Charlie Brenneman (4-6). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1708 — 991 points above Brenneman's 717. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Johnson's submission artist game against Brenneman's striker approach. Johnson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Brenneman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brenneman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Charlie Brenneman.** We're leaning Johnson here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Wiman (10-7) taking on Mac Danzig (5-7).

Danzig carries a modest Elo edge (920 to 868), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Wiman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Danzig is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Wiman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wiman throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Wiman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matt Wiman over Mac Danzig.** We're leaning Wiman here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Yves Edwards (10-9) taking on Rafaello Oliveira (2-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Edwards at 818, Oliveira at 818. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yves Edwards over Rafaello Oliveira.** The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Sass (3-1) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15).

There's a real Elo separation here: Johnson at 1245 versus Sass at 1099. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Sass has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Sass over Michael Johnson.** The model gives Sass a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mike Easton (3-3) taking on Byron Bloodworth (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Easton at 934 versus Bloodworth at 843. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bloodworth throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bloodworth is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bloodworth has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Byron Bloodworth over Mike Easton.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bloodworth at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features TJ Grant (7-3) taking on Shane Roller (2-3).

Grant is rated at 1640 — 726 points above Roller's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Grant rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Grant is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Roller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Roller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roller throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Roller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: TJ Grant over Shane Roller.** The model gives Grant a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Neer (6-8) taking on Keith Wisniewski (0-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Neer at 872 versus Wisniewski at 753. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neer throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wisniewski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Neer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Neer over Keith Wisniewski.** The model gives Neer a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Walel Watson (1-2) taking on Joseph Sandoval (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Watson at 807, Sandoval at 790. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sandoval throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandoval is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sandoval has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joseph Sandoval over Walel Watson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sandoval at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.