UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Quinton Jackson (7-5). Jones is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 11-inch reach advantage.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 865 points above Jackson's 1296. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Jones's submission artist game against Jackson's striker approach. Jones is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Jackson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Jones over Quinton Jackson.** The model is firm on this one: Jones at 86%.

The Welterweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-9) taking on Matt Hughes (18-6).

Hughes is rated at 1273 — 334 points above Koscheck's 939. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Koscheck is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hughes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hughes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Matt Hughes.** We're leaning Koscheck here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mark Hunt (8-7-1) taking on Ben Rothwell (9-7). Rothwell is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hunt at 1169 versus Rothwell at 1080. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Hunt's striker game against Rothwell's all-rounder approach. Hunt brings a versatile approach, while Rothwell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rothwell throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rothwell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Hunt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mark Hunt over Ben Rothwell.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hunt at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Travis Browne (9-6-1) taking on Rob Broughton (1-1). Browne is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Browne is rated at 1131 — 159 points above Broughton's 973. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Broughton throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Browne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Broughton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Travis Browne over Rob Broughton.** We're leaning Browne here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Takanori Gomi (4-8). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Diaz is rated at 1557 — 826 points above Gomi's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Diaz's wrestler game against Gomi's striker approach. Diaz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gomi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gomi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Diaz over Takanori Gomi.** We're leaning Diaz here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-8) taking on Aaron Riley (3-5). Ferguson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Ferguson is rated at 1065 — 207 points above Riley's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ferguson's all-rounder game against Riley's striker approach. Ferguson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Riley brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferguson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.1 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Aaron Riley.** The model is firm on this one: Ferguson at 80%.

The Middleweight matchup features Tim Boetsch (12-11) taking on Nick Ring (3-2).

Boetsch is rated at 1174 — 159 points above Ring's 1015. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Boetsch looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ring is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Boetsch the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ring throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Boetsch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Boetsch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Boetsch over Nick Ring.** The model gives Boetsch a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Junior Assuncao (2-2) taking on Eddie Yagin (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Assuncao at 963, Yagin at 984. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Assuncao throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Assuncao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Yagin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Junior Assuncao over Eddie Yagin.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Assuncao at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Takeya Mizugaki (8-5) taking on Cole Escovedo (0-2). Escovedo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mizugaki is rated at 995 — 264 points above Escovedo's 730. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Escovedo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Mizugaki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Mizugaki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Takeya Mizugaki over Cole Escovedo.** The model gives Mizugaki a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features James Te Huna (5-4) taking on Ricardo Romero (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Huna at 843, Romero at 838. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Romero throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Huna is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Huna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: James Te Huna over Ricardo Romero.** The model gives Huna a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.