UFC 134: Silva vs Okami: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on Yushin Okami (14-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 1154 versus Okami at 1061. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Silva's knockout artist game against Okami's wrestler approach. Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Okami looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Okami is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anderson Silva over Yushin Okami.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mauricio Rua (11-11-1) taking on Forrest Griffin (9-5).

Griffin is rated at 1329 — 453 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Forrest Griffin over Mauricio Rua.** The model gives Griffin a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Ross Pearson (12-12). Barboza is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Barboza is rated at 1142 — 292 points above Pearson's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Barboza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Edson Barboza over Ross Pearson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barboza at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (5-5) taking on Brendan Schaub (6-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Schaub at 1154 versus Nogueira at 1008. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Nogueira's wrestler game against Schaub's striker approach. Nogueira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Schaub brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schaub throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nogueira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Schaub has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brendan Schaub over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.** The model gives Schaub a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Stanislav Nedkov (1-1) taking on Luiz Cane (4-4). Cane is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Cane carries a modest Elo edge (922 to 881), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cane throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nedkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luiz Cane over Stanislav Nedkov.** We're leaning Cane here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Tavares (10-6-1) taking on Spencer Fisher (9-7).

Tavares is rated at 1124 — 248 points above Fisher's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Tavares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Fisher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tavares the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fisher throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Fisher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Spencer Fisher.** The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Rousimar Palhares (7-4) taking on Dan Miller (6-6). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Palhares is rated at 1251 — 365 points above Miller's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Palhares is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Palhares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Palhares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rousimar Palhares over Dan Miller.** We're leaning Palhares here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Paulo Thiago (5-7) taking on David Mitchell (1-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Mitchell at 903 versus Thiago at 811. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thiago throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Thiago has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paulo Thiago over David Mitchell.** The model gives Thiago a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raphael Assuncao (12-6) taking on Johnny Eduardo (3-4). Eduardo is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Assuncao is rated at 1099 — 226 points above Eduardo's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Assuncao throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Eduardo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Eduardo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Raphael Assuncao over Johnny Eduardo.** The model gives Assuncao a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Erick Silva (7-7) taking on Luis Ramos (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 951 versus Ramos at 834. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erick Silva over Luis Ramos.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Iuri Alcantara (10-6) taking on Felipe Arantes (5-5-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Alcantara at 1046 versus Arantes at 925. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Alcantara's knockout artist game against Arantes's wrestler approach. Alcantara is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Arantes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arantes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Arantes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Arantes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Felipe Arantes over Iuri Alcantara.** The model gives Arantes a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Yves Jabouin (5-4) taking on Ian Loveland (1-1).

Loveland carries a modest Elo edge (902 to 845), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jabouin throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Loveland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Loveland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ian Loveland over Yves Jabouin.** The model gives Loveland a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.