UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Tito Ortiz (15-10-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Ortiz.

Evans carries a modest Elo edge (1121 to 1059), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Evans's striker game against Ortiz's wrestler approach. Evans brings a versatile approach, while Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evans throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rashad Evans over Tito Ortiz. The model gives Evans a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-9) taking on Yoshihiro Akiyama (2-4).

Belfort is rated at 1255 — 270 points above Akiyama's 985. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Belfort's knockout artist game against Akiyama's all-rounder approach. Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Akiyama is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Akiyama throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Akiyama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Akiyama has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vitor Belfort over Yoshihiro Akiyama. The model gives Belfort a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Brian Ebersole (5-2) taking on Dennis Hallman (3-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Ebersole.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hallman at 1203 versus Ebersole at 1065. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ebersole's striker game against Hallman's wrestler approach. Ebersole brings a versatile approach, while Hallman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ebersole throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ebersole is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Ebersole has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brian Ebersole over Dennis Hallman. We're leaning Ebersole here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Constantinos Philippou (6-3) taking on Jorge Rivera (7-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Philippou at 1179, Rivera at 1174. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Philippou's striker game against Rivera's submission artist approach. Philippou brings a versatile approach, while Rivera is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jorge Rivera over Constantinos Philippou. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Rory MacDonald (9-3) taking on Mike Pyle (10-8).

MacDonald is rated at 1465 — 634 points above Pyle's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: MacDonald is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pyle looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pyle the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pyle throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Pyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rory MacDonald over Mike Pyle. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward MacDonald at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Gustafsson (10-7) taking on Matt Hamill (10-4). Gustafsson is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Gustafsson at 1169, Hamill at 1150. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Gustafsson's all-rounder game against Hamill's striker approach. Gustafsson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hamill brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamill throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gustafsson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Hamill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Hamill over Alexander Gustafsson. The model gives Hamill a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Chad Mendes (9-4) taking on Rani Yahya (13-5-1).

Mendes is rated at 1377 — 347 points above Yahya's 1030. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Mendes's striker game against Yahya's wrestler approach. Mendes brings a versatile approach, while Yahya looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mendes throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Mendes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chad Mendes over Rani Yahya. The model gives Mendes a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ivan Menjivar (4-4) taking on Nick Pace (1-1). Pace will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pace carries a modest Elo edge (930 to 895), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pace throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pace is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.2 more per 15 minutes. Pace has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nick Pace over Ivan Menjivar. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pace at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Johny Hendricks (13-7) taking on Mike Pierce (9-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pierce at 1171 versus Hendricks at 1068. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Hendricks is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pierce looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Pierce the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hendricks throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Pierce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johny Hendricks over Mike Pierce. The model gives Hendricks a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Mike Brown (2-3) taking on Nam Phan (2-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Brown at 982 versus Phan at 859. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phan throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Phan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nam Phan over Mike Brown. The model gives Phan a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Rafael Natal (9-6-1) taking on Paul Bradley (0-1).

Natal carries a modest Elo edge (931 to 885), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Natal throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Bradley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Natal over Paul Bradley. The model gives Natal a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.