UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Dominick Cruz (7-2) taking on Urijah Faber (11-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Cruz at 1446 versus Faber at 1297. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Cruz's striker game against Faber's wrestler approach. Cruz brings a versatile approach, while Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Faber throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Faber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Cruz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Urijah Faber over Dominick Cruz.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Faber at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Leben (12-9) taking on Wanderlei Silva (4-7).

Silva is rated at 1282 — 427 points above Leben's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Leben's wrestler game against Silva's knockout artist approach. Leben looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leben throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Leben is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Leben over Wanderlei Silva.** The model gives Leben a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Dennis Siver (11-8) taking on Matt Wiman (10-7). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Wiman.

Siver is rated at 1214 — 346 points above Wiman's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Siver's knockout artist game against Wiman's wrestler approach. Siver is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Wiman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Siver throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dennis Siver over Matt Wiman.** The model gives Siver a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tito Ortiz (15-10-1) taking on Ryan Bader (14-5).

Bader is rated at 1619 — 560 points above Ortiz's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ortiz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bader looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bader the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bader throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Bader over Tito Ortiz.** We're leaning Bader here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Condit (9-9) taking on Dong Hyun Kim (13-3).

Kim is rated at 1318 — 153 points above Condit's 1165. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kim has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Condit is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kim looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kim the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Condit throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Condit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carlos Condit over Dong Hyun Kim.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Condit at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Melvin Guillard (12-8) taking on Shane Roller (2-3).

Guillard is rated at 1177 — 263 points above Roller's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Guillard's striker game against Roller's wrestler approach. Guillard brings a versatile approach, while Roller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roller throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Guillard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Melvin Guillard over Shane Roller.** The model is firm on this one: Guillard at 80%.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on George Sotiropoulos (7-3).

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 364 points above Sotiropoulos's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sotiropoulos throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over George Sotiropoulos.** The model gives Anjos a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brian Bowles (2-1) taking on Takeya Mizugaki (8-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Mizugaki at 995 versus Bowles at 857. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bowles throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Bowles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Bowles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Takeya Mizugaki over Brian Bowles.** The model gives Mizugaki a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Aaron Simpson (7-3) taking on Brad Tavares (16-10).

Simpson is rated at 1097 — 172 points above Tavares's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Simpson's wrestler game against Tavares's striker approach. Simpson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Tavares brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Simpson throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Simpson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Simpson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Tavares over Aaron Simpson.** The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Njokuani (3-4) taking on Andre Winner (2-3). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Njokuani carries a modest Elo edge (972 to 911), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Njokuani's all-rounder game against Winner's striker approach. Njokuani is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Winner brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Njokuani throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Njokuani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Njokuani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Njokuani over Andre Winner.** The model gives Njokuani a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jeff Hougland (1-1) taking on Donny Walker (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hougland at 917 versus Walker at 791. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Donny Walker over Jeff Hougland.** The model gives Walker a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.