UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
Saturday, February 26, 2011·Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight
Penn 43%57% Fitch
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -40(favors Fitch)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Fitch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Fitch)
Middleweight✓
Michael Bisping won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bisping 76%24% Rivera
STRONG
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -83(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Bisping)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Rivera)
Lightweight✗
Dennis Siver won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Siver 35%65% Sotiropoulos
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -224(favors Sotiropoulos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Siver)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Sotiropoulos)
Welterweight✗
Brian Ebersole won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ebersole 45%55% Lytle
LEAN
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -405(favors Lytle)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.5(favors Lytle)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lytle)
Middleweight✓
Kyle Noke won by Submission (R1)
Noke 54%46% Camozzi
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Noke)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Noke)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Noke)
Lightweight✓
Ross Pearson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pearson 72%28% Fisher
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Fisher)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Pearson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Fisher)
Light Heavyweight✓
Alexander Gustafsson won by Submission (R1)
Gustafsson 60%40% Huna
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +63(favors Gustafsson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Gustafsson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.3(favors Huna)
Middleweight✗
Nick Ring won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ring 47%53% Fukuda
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Fukuda)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Fukuda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Fukuda)
Light Heavyweight✓
Anthony Perosh won by Submission (R1)
Perosh 64%36% Blackledge
LEAN
→Elo gap: -216(favors Blackledge)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Perosh)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Perosh)
Featherweight✓
Zhang Tiequan won by Submission (R1)
Tiequan 62%38% Reinhardt
LEAN
→Elo gap: +37(favors Tiequan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Reinhardt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Reinhardt)
Heavyweight✓
Mark Hunt won by KO/TKO (R2)
Hunt 66%34% Tuchscherer
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +5(favors Hunt)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Hunt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +13.5(favors Hunt)
Lightweight✓
Curt Warburton won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Warburton 73%27% Jewtuszko
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -61(favors Jewtuszko)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Warburton)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Warburton)