The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Jonathan Brookins (2-3) taking on Michael Johnson (16-16).

There's a real Elo separation here: Johnson at 1155 versus Brookins at 1023. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Johnson has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Johnson over Jonathan Brookins. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Stephan Bonnar (8-7) taking on Igor Pokrajac (4-8). Bonnar is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Bonnar is rated at 1244 — 453 points above Pokrajac's 791. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Bonnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pokrajac is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bonnar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonnar throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pokrajac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Pokrajac has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephan Bonnar over Igor Pokrajac. The model gives Bonnar a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-11) taking on Kendall Grove (7-6). Grove is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Maia is rated at 1506 — 421 points above Grove's 1085. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Maia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Grove is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Maia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grove throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demian Maia over Kendall Grove. The model gives Maia a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Rick Story (12-7) taking on Johny Hendricks (13-8).

Story is rated at 1428 — 175 points above Hendricks's 1254. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Story's wrestler game against Hendricks's striker approach. Story looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hendricks brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hendricks throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Story has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rick Story over Johny Hendricks. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Story at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Leonard Garcia (2-7) taking on Nam Phan (2-6). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Garcia.

Phan is rated at 857 — 179 points above Garcia's 678. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Garcia's all-rounder game against Phan's striker approach. Garcia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Phan brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Phan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Phan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nam Phan over Leonard Garcia. We're leaning Phan here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Cody McKenzie (3-4) taking on Aaron Wilkinson (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: McKenzie at 923 versus Wilkinson at 834. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wilkinson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wilkinson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wilkinson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody McKenzie over Aaron Wilkinson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McKenzie at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Ian Loveland (1-2) taking on Tyler Toner (0-1).

Toner carries a modest Elo edge (873 to 842), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Toner throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Toner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Toner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyler Toner over Ian Loveland. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Toner at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Kyle Watson (1-1) taking on Sako Chivitchian (0-1).

Watson carries a modest Elo edge (911 to 873), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chivitchian throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Chivitchian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Chivitchian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sako Chivitchian over Kyle Watson. The model gives Chivitchian a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Nick Pace (1-2) taking on Will Campuzano (0-4). Campuzano is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pace is rated at 893 — 197 points above Campuzano's 696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Campuzano throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Campuzano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Campuzano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Will Campuzano over Nick Pace. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Campuzano at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Pablo Garza (3-3) taking on Fredson Paixao (0-1). Garza is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Garza at 916 versus Paixao at 809. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Paixao throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Paixao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Paixao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pablo Garza over Fredson Paixao. The model gives Garza a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features David Branch (4-5) taking on Rich Attonito (3-2). Branch is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Branch at 1211 versus Attonito at 1065. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Attonito throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Branch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Branch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Branch over Rich Attonito. We're leaning Branch here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.