UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Petr Yan (11-4) taking on Merab Dvalishvili (14-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Yan at 1869, Dvalishvili at 1867. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Both fighters bring momentum: Yan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Dvalishvili has won 14 straight.

Stylistically this is Yan's striker game against Dvalishvili's wrestler approach. Yan brings a versatile approach, while Dvalishvili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yan throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Yan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over Petr Yan.** We're leaning Dvalishvili here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Joshua Van (8-1) taking on Alexandre Pantoja (14-3).

Van is rated at 1678 — 181 points above Pantoja's 1497. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Van rides a 5-fight win streak into this one, while Pantoja has won 8 straight.

Stylistically this is Van's striker game against Pantoja's wrestler approach. Van brings a versatile approach, while Pantoja looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Van throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pantoja is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Van has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joshua Van over Alexandre Pantoja.** The model gives Van a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Tatsuro Taira (7-1) taking on Brandon Moreno (11-5-2).

Taira is rated at 1620 — 210 points above Moreno's 1410. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Taira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Moreno is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Taira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreno throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Taira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Moreno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Tatsuro Taira.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moreno at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Payton Talbott (4-1) taking on Henry Cejudo (10-5). Talbott is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Talbott at 1414, Cejudo at 1416. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Talbott throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cejudo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Cejudo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Payton Talbott over Henry Cejudo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Talbott at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1) taking on Bogdan Guskov (4-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Blachowicz at 1578 versus Guskov at 1480. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Guskov has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Blachowicz's all-rounder game against Guskov's knockout artist approach. Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Guskov is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guskov throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jan Blachowicz over Bogdan Guskov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Blachowicz at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Manuel Torres (4-1) taking on Grant Dawson (11-1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Torres at 1482 versus Dawson at 1336. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Dawson has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Torres's knockout artist game against Dawson's wrestler approach. Torres is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Dawson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torres throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dawson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Torres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Grant Dawson over Manuel Torres.** The model gives Dawson a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Duncan (5-1) taking on Terrance McKinney (7-4).

Duncan is rated at 1375 — 265 points above McKinney's 1110. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Duncan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Duncan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McKinney is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving McKinney the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKinney throws significantly more leather — a 15.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McKinney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. McKinney has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Terrance McKinney over Chris Duncan.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McKinney at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Maycee Barber (9-2) taking on Karine Silva (5-1).

Barber is rated at 1543 — 307 points above Silva's 1237. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barber rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Barber's striker game against Silva's wrestler approach. Barber brings a versatile approach, while Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barber throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Maycee Barber over Karine Silva.** The model gives Barber a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Fares Ziam (7-2) taking on Nazim Sadykhov (4-0-1). Ziam is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Ziam is rated at 1556 — 278 points above Sadykhov's 1278. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ziam rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Ziam looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Sadykhov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ziam the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sadykhov throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ziam is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ziam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fares Ziam over Nazim Sadykhov.** We're leaning Ziam here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Brunno Ferreira (5-2) taking on Marvin Vettori (9-7-1). Vettori is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Ferreira carries a modest Elo edge (1344 to 1280), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Ferreira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Vettori is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ferreira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vettori throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brunno Ferreira over Marvin Vettori.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ferreira at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jalin Turner (7-6) taking on Edson Barboza (18-13). Turner is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Turner is rated at 1393 — 251 points above Barboza's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Turner's all-rounder game against Barboza's striker approach. Turner is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Barboza brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turner throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Barboza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Barboza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jalin Turner over Edson Barboza.** The model gives Turner a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Iwo Baraniewski (0-0) taking on Ibo Aslan (2-2). Aslan is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Baraniewski is rated at 1102 — 274 points above Aslan's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aslan throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Aslan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Baraniewski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ibo Aslan over Iwo Baraniewski.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aslan at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Mansur Abdul-Malik (2-0) taking on Antonio Trocoli (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Trocoli.

Abdul-Malik is rated at 1208 — 405 points above Trocoli's 804. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abdul-Malik throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Abdul-Malik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Abdul-Malik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mansur Abdul-Malik over Antonio Trocoli.** The model is firm on this one: Abdul-Malik at 76%.

The Featherweight matchup features Mairon Santos (3-0) taking on Muhammad Naimov (5-1).

Santos is rated at 1376 — 265 points above Naimov's 1112. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Santos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Naimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov.** The model gives Santos a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.