UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-6) taking on Nate Marquardt (13-11).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Okami at 1061, Marquardt at 1064. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marquardt throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yushin Okami over Nate Marquardt.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Okami at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Dennis Siver (11-8) taking on Andre Winner (2-3). Winner is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Siver is rated at 1214 — 303 points above Winner's 911. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Siver's all-rounder game against Winner's striker approach. Siver is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Winner brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Siver throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Siver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dennis Siver over Andre Winner.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Siver at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Amir Sadollah (6-4) taking on Peter Sobotta (4-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sobotta at 1083 versus Sadollah at 946. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Sadollah is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sobotta is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sobotta the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sadollah throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobotta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Sadollah has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Amir Sadollah over Peter Sobotta.** The model gives Sadollah a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Krzysztof Soszynski (6-2) taking on Goran Reljic (1-2). Reljic is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Soszynski carries a modest Elo edge (975 to 939), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soszynski throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Reljic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Reljic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Goran Reljic over Krzysztof Soszynski.** The model gives Reljic a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Duane Ludwig (4-4) taking on Nick Osipczak (2-2). Osipczak is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Osipczak at 971 versus Ludwig at 853. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Osipczak throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Osipczak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Ludwig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nick Osipczak over Duane Ludwig.** The model gives Osipczak a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vladimir Matyushenko (7-4) taking on Alexandre Ferreira (0-0).

Matyushenko is rated at 1126 — 202 points above Ferreira's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matyushenko throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Matyushenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vladimir Matyushenko over Alexandre Ferreira.** The model is firm on this one: Matyushenko at 76%.

The Welterweight matchup features Pascal Krauss (2-1) taking on Mark Scanlon (0-0).

Krauss carries a modest Elo edge (980 to 915), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Scanlon throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Scanlon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Scanlon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pascal Krauss over Mark Scanlon.** The model gives Krauss a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Kyle Noke (6-5) taking on Rob Kimmons (3-3). Noke is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Noke carries a modest Elo edge (869 to 798), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Noke is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kimmons is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kimmons the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Noke throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kimmons is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Noke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyle Noke over Rob Kimmons.** We're leaning Noke here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Karlos Vemola (2-3) taking on Seth Petruzelli (0-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Vemola at 839 versus Petruzelli at 716. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petruzelli throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Petruzelli is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Petruzelli has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Karlos Vemola over Seth Petruzelli.** We're leaning Vemola here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Eduardo Rocha (1-1) taking on Kris McCray (0-2). McCray is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rocha is rated at 1000 — 199 points above McCray's 801. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCray throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. McCray is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rocha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carlos Eduardo Rocha over Kris McCray.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rocha at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.