UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Saturday, October 23, 2010·Anaheim, California, USA·11 fights
Model: 10/11(91%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Cain Velasquez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Velasquez 70%30% Lesnar
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -130(favors Lesnar)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Velasquez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Velasquez)
WelterweightMISS
Jake Shields won by Decision - Split (R3)
Shields 29%71% Kampmann
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -326(favors Kampmann)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Kampmann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Kampmann)
WelterweightHIT
Diego Sanchez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sanchez 58%42% Thiago
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -32(favors Thiago)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Thiago)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Matt Hamill won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hamill 59%41% Ortiz
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -23(favors Ortiz)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Hamill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Ortiz)
HeavyweightHIT
Brendan Schaub won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Schaub 72%28% Gonzaga
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +19(favors Schaub)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Schaub)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.3(favors Gonzaga)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Court McGee won by Submission (R3)
McGee 65%35% Jensen
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +188(favors McGee)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Jensen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors McGee)
MiddleweightHIT
Tom Lawlor won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lawlor 61%39% Cote
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEAN
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -192(favors Cote)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Lawlor)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Lawlor)
WelterweightHIT
Daniel Roberts won by Submission (R1)
Roberts 57%43% Guymon
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +1(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Guymon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Roberts)
LightweightHIT
Sam Stout won by Decision - Split (R3)
Stout 72%28% Taylor
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +106(favors Stout)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Stout)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Taylor)
Early Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Camozzi won by Decision - Split (R3)
Camozzi 75%25% Yang
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +128(favors Camozzi)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Camozzi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Yang)
HeavyweightHIT
Jon Madsen won by KO/TKO (R1)
Madsen 81%19% Yvel
Over/UnderUnder 66%
Under 66%Over 34%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +364(favors Madsen)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Madsen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Madsen)