UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-10) taking on Mirko Filipovic (4-6). Mir will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Mir at 1252 versus Filipovic at 1145. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Filipovic is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mir the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mir throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Filipovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mirko Filipovic over Frank Mir. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Filipovic at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Rogerio Nogueira (6-6).

Bader is rated at 1619 — 476 points above Nogueira's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bader looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nogueira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bader the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bader throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Bader has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Bader over Rogerio Nogueira. We're leaning Bader here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Lytle (9-10) taking on Matt Serra (7-6). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Lytle.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lytle at 1330 versus Serra at 1201. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lytle's wrestler game against Serra's knockout artist approach. Lytle looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Serra is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lytle throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Serra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Lytle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Lytle over Matt Serra. We're leaning Lytle here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Sean Sherk (7-4) taking on Evan Dunham (11-8-1). Dunham is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sherk is rated at 1371 — 352 points above Dunham's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sherk looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dunham is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sherk the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sherk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Dunham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Evan Dunham over Sean Sherk. The model gives Dunham a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Melvin Guillard (12-8) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18).

Guillard is rated at 1177 — 236 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Guillard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Melvin Guillard. The model gives Stephens a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features CB Dollaway (11-8) taking on Joe Doerksen (2-6).

Dollaway carries a modest Elo edge (965 to 925), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dollaway throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Dollaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: CB Dollaway over Joe Doerksen. The model is firm on this one: Dollaway at 81%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Matt Mitrione (9-4) taking on Joey Beltran (3-5). Mitrione is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Mitrione is rated at 1200 — 385 points above Beltran's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beltran throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Beltran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mitrione has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Mitrione over Joey Beltran. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mitrione at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Tavares (10-6-1) taking on Pat Audinwood (0-1).

Tavares is rated at 1124 — 282 points above Audinwood's 841. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Audinwood has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Pat Audinwood. We're leaning Tavares here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Waylon Lowe (2-1) taking on Steve Lopez (0-1).

Lowe is rated at 1025 — 153 points above Lopez's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lopez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lowe is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Lopez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Waylon Lowe over Steve Lopez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lowe at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features TJ Grant (7-3) taking on Julio Paulino (0-1).

Grant is rated at 1640 — 756 points above Paulino's 884. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Grant rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Grant over Julio Paulino. The model is firm on this one: Grant at 82%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Sean McCorkle (1-1) taking on Mark Hunt (8-7-1). McCorkle is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Hunt is rated at 1169 — 303 points above McCorkle's 866. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hunt throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hunt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hunt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean McCorkle over Mark Hunt. We're leaning McCorkle here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.