UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares lands on Wednesday, September 15, 2010 in Austin, Texas, USA with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Marquardt vs Rousimar PalharesMiddleweight | Nate Marquardt | Lean | 63% |
| Charles Oliveira vs Efrain EscuderoLightweight | Charles Oliveira | Toss-up | 52% |
| Jim Miller vs Gleison TibauLightweight | Jim Miller | Lean | 57% |
| Cole Miller vs Ross PearsonLightweight | Ross Pearson | Confident | 68% |
| Yves Edwards vs John GundersonLightweight | John Gunderson | Confident | 70% |
| Kyle Kingsbury vs Jared HammanLight Heavyweight | Kyle Kingsbury | Lean | 60% |
| David Branch vs Tomasz DrwalMiddleweight | David Branch | Lean | 64% |
| Rich Attonito vs Rafael NatalMiddleweight | Rich Attonito | Lean | 63% |
| TJ Waldburger vs David MitchellWelterweight | TJ Waldburger | Lean | 59% |
| Brian Foster vs Forrest PetzWelterweight | Brian Foster | Confident | 75% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Nate Marquardt vs Rousimar Palhares
The Middleweight matchup features Nate Marquardt (13-11) taking on Rousimar Palhares (7-4). Marquardt is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Palhares is rated at 1251 — 187 points above Marquardt's 1064. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Marquardt is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Palhares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Palhares the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Marquardt throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Palhares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nate Marquardt over Rousimar Palhares. The model gives Marquardt a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Charles Oliveira vs Efrain Escudero
The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Efrain Escudero (5-6). Oliveira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 905 points above Escudero's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Escudero is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Escudero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Efrain Escudero. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Jim Miller vs Gleison Tibau
The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Gleison Tibau (16-11).
Miller is rated at 1213 — 194 points above Tibau's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Tibau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jim Miller over Gleison Tibau. The model gives Miller a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Cole Miller vs Ross Pearson
The Lightweight matchup features Cole Miller (10-8) taking on Ross Pearson (12-12). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Miller carries a modest Elo edge (891 to 849), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Miller's wrestler game against Pearson's striker approach. Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pearson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Pearson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ross Pearson over Cole Miller. We're leaning Pearson here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Yves Edwards vs John Gunderson
The Lightweight matchup features Yves Edwards (10-9) taking on John Gunderson (1-1). Edwards will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
There's a real Elo separation here: Gunderson at 920 versus Edwards at 818. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gunderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: John Gunderson over Yves Edwards. We're leaning Gunderson here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Kyle Kingsbury vs Jared Hamman
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Kyle Kingsbury (4-4) taking on Jared Hamman (2-4). Kingsbury will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
There's a real Elo separation here: Kingsbury at 835 versus Hamman at 734. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hamman throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Kingsbury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kyle Kingsbury over Jared Hamman. The model gives Kingsbury a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
David Branch vs Tomasz Drwal
The Middleweight matchup features David Branch (4-4) taking on Tomasz Drwal (3-2).
There's a real Elo separation here: Branch at 1136 versus Drwal at 1008. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is Branch's striker game against Drwal's submission artist approach. Branch brings a versatile approach, while Drwal is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Drwal throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Drwal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.9 more per 15 minutes. Branch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: David Branch over Tomasz Drwal. The model gives Branch a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Rich Attonito vs Rafael Natal
The Middleweight matchup features Rich Attonito (3-1) taking on Rafael Natal (9-6-1). Natal is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Attonito carries a modest Elo edge (985 to 931), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Attonito throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Attonito is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Natal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rich Attonito over Rafael Natal. The model gives Attonito a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
TJ Waldburger vs David Mitchell
The Welterweight matchup features TJ Waldburger (4-3) taking on David Mitchell (1-3).
There's a real Elo separation here: Waldburger at 1008 versus Mitchell at 903. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mitchell throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mitchell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: TJ Waldburger over David Mitchell. The model gives Waldburger a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Brian Foster vs Forrest Petz
The Welterweight matchup features Brian Foster (2-2) taking on Forrest Petz (2-4).
Foster is rated at 1185 — 401 points above Petz's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Foster throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Foster is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Foster has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Brian Foster over Forrest Petz. We're leaning Foster here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.