UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Vladimir Matyushenko (7-4). Jones is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 1035 points above Matyushenko's 1126. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Matyushenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Jones over Vladimir Matyushenko.** The model is firm on this one: Jones at 81%.

The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-6) taking on Mark Munoz (8-6). Okami is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Okami at 1061, Munoz at 1082. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Okami's knockout artist game against Munoz's wrestler approach. Okami is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Munoz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munoz throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Munoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yushin Okami over Mark Munoz.** We're leaning Okami here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Ellenberger (10-10) taking on John Howard (7-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Howard at 932 versus Ellenberger at 847. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ellenberger's all-rounder game against Howard's striker approach. Ellenberger is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Howard brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ellenberger throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Ellenberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Howard over Jake Ellenberger.** The model gives Howard a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Takanori Gomi (4-8) taking on Tyson Griffin (8-5).

Griffin is rated at 925 — 194 points above Gomi's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gomi's striker game against Griffin's all-rounder approach. Gomi brings a versatile approach, while Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Gomi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tyson Griffin over Takanori Gomi.** We're leaning Griffin here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jacob Volkmann (6-3) taking on Paul Kelly (5-3).

Volkmann carries a modest Elo edge (1028 to 998), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Kelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Kelly over Jacob Volkmann.** The model gives Kelly a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Matthew Riddle (7-3) taking on DaMarques Johnson (4-5).

Riddle is rated at 1158 — 317 points above Johnson's 841. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Riddle looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Riddle the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riddle throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Riddle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matthew Riddle over DaMarques Johnson.** The model gives Riddle a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Igor Pokrajac (4-7) taking on James Irvin (4-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Irvin at 855 versus Pokrajac at 764. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Pokrajac's all-rounder game against Irvin's knockout artist approach. Pokrajac is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Irvin is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Irvin throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pokrajac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Pokrajac has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Igor Pokrajac over James Irvin.** The model gives Pokrajac a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Brian Stann (6-4) taking on Mike Massenzio (2-4).

Stann is rated at 1077 — 269 points above Massenzio's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Stann's knockout artist game against Massenzio's wrestler approach. Stann is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Massenzio looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stann throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Massenzio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Stann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brian Stann over Mike Massenzio.** The model is firm on this one: Stann at 80%.

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Darren Elkins (19-10). Oliveira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 733 points above Elkins's 1113. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 20.4 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Darren Elkins.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Rob Kimmons (3-3) taking on Steve Steinbeiss (0-1). Steinbeiss is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Kimmons carries a modest Elo edge (798 to 767), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kimmons throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Kimmons is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Kimmons has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rob Kimmons over Steve Steinbeiss.** The model gives Kimmons a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.